Fragmented transitions in the context of competitive regionalism: the case of Sudan

Sudan is undergoing a twin transition, shifting from both armed conflict and authoritarian rule.

From:
Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office
Published
8 May 2024
Country:
Sudan
Document Type:
Research Paper
Theme:
Governance and Conflict
First published:
5 July 2022

Abstract

Findings

  • Sudan is undergoing a twin transition, shifting from both armed conflict and authoritarian rule. Both processes are intertwined and substantially impacted by a fragmented regional constellation.

  • The regional and international constellation around Sudan provides a difficult and non-conducive environment for the Sudanese twin transition. Western partners prioritise regional stability over the fragile Sudanese democratic transition.

  • Multilateral actors are bound by strict mandates and therefore focus on facilitating negotiations with the military regime, an approach widely rejected among the opposition.

  • Whilst regional actors support stability in Sudan, they appear to have little interest in a successful democratic transition and prefer to work with military counterparts and more autocratic systems of rule.

  • Regional dynamics are complex and unpredictable. International as well as Sudanese actors have to constantly work on their positioning within a fluid and flexible dynamic, and to forge and maintain alliances within the regional settlement.

  • Stability in Sudan remains the most important goal that unites all international partners.

  • If Western actors wish to have an influence on Sudan바카라 사이트™s twin transition, they will need to take more risks with foreign policies, and challenge regional allies.

Citation

Pospisil, J. and Jenner, A. Fragmented Transitions in the Context of Competitive Regionalism: The Case of Sudan (PeaceRep Report: Global Transitions Series). PeaceRep: The Peace and Conflict Resolution Evidence Platform, University of Edinburgh 2022

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Published 8 May 2024
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