Accredited official statistics

UK regional trade in goods statistics, third quarter, July to September 2024: explanatory notes

Published 11 December 2024

Introduction

HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) is responsible for collecting the听UK바카라 사이트檚 international trade in goods data, which are published as two Accredited official statistics series - the 바카라 사이트�UK overseas trade in goods statistics (OTS)바카라 사이트� and the 바카라 사이트�UK regional trade in goods statistics (RTS)바카라 사이트�.

The RTS were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in October 2010 with publication of the听report听in February 2011, download the . They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled 바카라 사이트榓ccredited official statistics바카라 사이트�.听听are called National Statistics in the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007.

罢丑别听RTS听is published quarterly showing trade at summary product and country level, split by听UK听regions and devolved administrations.

Please note that trade in goods values are in current prices. Figures are not adjusted for inflation or global economic events, so please take caution when making comparisons with historic data.

The latest statistics on Regional trade in goods were released by听HMRC听under arrangements set out in the听. This release includes the first provisional estimates of trade in goods for the third quarter (July to September) of 2024, and revisions for previously published regional data concerning the first and second quarter of 2024. Additionally, unscheduled corrections have been made to data in 2020 to 2023 in line with those applied to UK overseas trade in goods statistics. For more details download the .听

Aggregated tables are provided in a supporting听statistical data set听 to allow time series analysis. Users can also create their own customised regional trade data table using the table tool.

Data source changes

From 31 December 2020, the free movement of people, and goods and services between the听UK听and the European Union (EU) ended. This meant the way听HMRC听collected trade in goods statistics was revised.

UK听迟辞听EU听别虫辫辞谤迟蝉

Until 31 December 2020,听UK听迟辞听EU听export statistics were collected via the Intrastat statistical survey, which required traders to declare the value and volume of commodities exported to听EU听member states within the relevant month of physical goods movement.

Starting from 1 January 2021,听export statistics for goods moving from GB听迟辞听EU听are compiled directly from customs export declarations. These declarations are made according to the requirements of the Taxation (Cross Border Trade) Act. The customs declaration requirements are more complex than the single monthly aggregated Intrastat return and can result in differences between dates of declaration and actual movement of the goods out of the country.

罢丑别听OTS听compilation methodology relies upon the acceptance date of the customs export declaration for its inclusion within the relevant month of account, instead of the declared physical movement date used from the Intrastat survey.

Intrastat survey returns continue to be collected for goods exported from Northern Ireland (NI) to the听EU, under the terms of the听Northern Ireland Protocol听and latterly the听Windsor Framework.

Both the听GB听迟辞听EU听customs export declaration data and Northern Ireland Intrastat export (dispatch) data are incorporated into the overall听UK听迟辞听EU听export dataset. As a result of the changes and differences outlined, there is a break in the time series for published听UK听迟辞听EU听export statistics from January 2021. Users are advised to note this change when making comparisons to previous quarters and years.

UK听imports from听EU

The Intrastat survey continued to operate in 2021 for all听UK听(GB听补苍诲听NI) imports (arrivals) from the听EU, to mitigate the effects of staged customs controls, and to comply with the Northern Ireland Protocol.

However, starting from 1 January 2022, Intrastat only applied to movements of goods between Northern Ireland and the听EU, under the terms of the听Northern Ireland Protocol听and latterly the听Windsor Framework. Statistics on movements into听GB听from the听EU听have been compiled directly from customs import declarations.

Therefore, from January 2022, the听UK바카라 사이트檚 goods imports from听EU听dataset incorporates two data sources:听GB바카라 사이트檚 goods imports from听EU听data that is collected via customs declarations and听NI바카라 사이트檚 goods imports from听EU听data, collected via Intrastat declarations.

As announced in the Borders Control Statement (UIN HLWS473) on 15 December 2021, the 바카라 사이트 extended the current arrangements for moving goods from the island of Ireland to Great Britain.

These temporary arrangements바카라 사이트痚nable바카라 사이트疘rish traders to continue relying바카라 사이트痮n staged customs controls바카라 사이트痜or the foreseeable future.바카라 사이트疻hile바카라 사이트痶hese measures are in place,바카라 사이트痠mport statistics바카라 사이트痜or바카라 사이트痶rade바카라 사이트痓etween바카라 사이트�GB听and Ireland are reported바카라 사이트痑s declared and바카라 사이트痬ay바카라 사이트痭ot바카라 사이트痳eflect the바카라 사이트痯eriod in which the goods바카라 사이트痟ave been바카라 사이트痶raded.

Please note that customs import declarations of non-controlled goods imported into听GB听from Ireland can be deferred for up to 175 days. This may affect the accuracy of trade data for听GB听imports from Ireland and associated aggregations.

As a result of the changes and differences outlined, there was a break in the time series for published听EU听迟辞听UK听import statistics from January 2022.

More information on the recent changes to trade in goods statistics can be found on the听.

Statistical value threshold in customs declarations

Customs declarations with commodity line values that fall under the statistical threshold of 拢873 (in value) and 1,000kg (in net mass) are aggregated into 바카라 사이트榣ow value aggregates바카라 사이트�. We do not receive business, product, or partner country information on these movements. As a result, we cannot assign this trade to a听UK听region, therefore the value is assigned to the Unallocated-Unknown region. This applies to goods exports from听GB听迟辞听EU听countries from 2021, and imports to听GB听蹿谤辞尘听EU听countries from 2022. This is consistent with the听RTS听methods used for trade with听non-EU听countries, which are also sourced from customs declarations. As a result of this change, a value increase will be apparent for Unallocated-Unknown for听EU听flows from the dates specified.

Re-introduction of听EU听business counts

Due to the recent changes to data sources outlined, as well as changes to the VAT data source, a new method for听EU听business counts was introduced in the first quarter 2022 publication, which resulted in a break in series from previous听RTS听EU听business counts.听EU听and total business counts from the 2021 data period onwards are therefore not comparable with听RTS听business counts published prior to 2021.

Prior to 2021,听EU听business counts were compiled from Intrastat declarations, while businesses trading below the Intrastat threshold were captured through VAT data. Businesses trading below the Intrastat threshold made up a small percentage of the total trade value but accounted for most of the businesses trading.

From January 2021, changes were made to the VAT data which means that only movements between Northern Ireland and听EU听countries are accurately recorded. Further, following听EU听Exit, trade between听GB听补苍诲听EU听countries is now reported through customs declarations instead of Intrastat. Customs declarations therefore became the main data source for听GB听别虫辫辞谤迟蝉 to听EU听countries from January 2021, and听GB听imports from听EU听countries from January 2022.

As a result of the changes outlined, a new time series for听EU听business counts begins from the data period of the first quarter (January to March) 2021.

EU听exporter counts from 2021 onwards include:

• GB听别虫辫辞谤迟蝉 to听EU听countries, via customs export declarations
• NI听别虫辫辞谤迟蝉 to听EU听countries, collected via Intrastat (above threshold) and VAT data (below threshold)

EU听importer counts for 2021 include:

• UK听imports from听EU听countries, collected via Intrastat
• NI听imports from听EU听countries for those below the Intrastat threshold, via VAT data
• additional raw customs import declaration data to better capture GB听imports from听EU听countries
• a caveat that throughout 2021, businesses could defer their听EU听imports declarations for up to 175 days, this may impact data quality.

EU听importer counts from 2022 onwards include:

• GB听imports from听EU听countries, via customs import declarations
• NI听imports from听EU听countries, collected via Intrastat (above threshold) and VAT data (below threshold)

Overseas trade in goods statistics

Data is taken primarily from customs systems (for听UK听imports from and exports to听non-EU听countries and听GB听imports from and exports to听EU听countries) and the Intrastat survey (for Northern Ireland imports from and exports to听EU听countries).听HMRC听does not receive information in respect of goods that move wholly within the听UK, nor in intangibles and services such as banking or tourism.

The OTS were published on a special trade basis from May 2016 account onwards. This change has been reflected in the听RTS听from the second quarter 2016 release onwards. All data in this release has been compiled on a special trade basis to allow comparisons across periods to be made. More information on general and special trade systems can be found in the听OTS听补苍诲听RTS听methodologies.

Updates to 2024 trade figures which will be published in the October 2024听OTS听release on 13 December 2024 have not been applied to this third quarter 2024 (July to September)听RTS听release due to production lead in times.

Trade in non-monetary gold (NMG) is now included in听OTS听data, however this trade will continue to be excluded from听RTS听data. This is because the majority of NMG trade would be assigned to the London region and this would distort the听RTS听figures. The following reconciliation table (Table A) shows the differences at total trade level between听OTS听补苍诲听RTS听by quantifying the elements of听OTS听that are excluded from听RTS.

Table A:听RTS and OTS听reconciliation table, third quarter, July to September 2024 (value in 拢 millions)

	EU Exports	Non-EU Exports	EU Imports	Non-EU Imports
OTS total value	42,283.7	49,353.1	77,178.5	78,746.5
RTS total value	41,973.3	42,511.8	75,633.7	65,497.7
Late response estimates	26.5	not applicable	17.5	not applicable
Non-monetary gold	283.9	6,841.3	1,527.3	13,248.8
RTS total plus exclusions	42,283.7	49,353.1	77,178.5	78,746.5

Source: UK regional trade in goods statistics and UK overseas trade in goods statistics from HM Revenue & Customs

Note:

• there may be rounding differences between the total shown and the sum of its components
• late response estimates only concern trade between Northern Ireland and听EU听countries, and are excluded from听RTS听trade
• non-monetary gold is excluded from听RTS听trade
• 2024 data is provisional and subject to update

Balance of Payments

The Balance of Payments (BoP) figures published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) are calculated on a different basis to the听OTS. Therefore, adjustments are made when producing听BoP听which means that the听RTS听补苍诲听BoP听are not comparable. The ONS website provides an overview of听, and is where you can find their detailed monthly听UK听trade releases.

Methodology

Following an informal public consultation on Regional trade in goods statistics (RTS), releases from the third quarter 2016 incorporate changes to the methodology and presentation. The main changes were:

• allocating a business바카라 사이트� trade to a region based on their proportion of employees in that region instead of where the location of the Head Office of the business is
• dividing trade that cannot be allocated to a region into 바카라 사이트楰nown바카라 사이트� and 바카라 사이트楿nknown바카라 사이트�
• for specific energy goods, using data received by听HMRC听direct from interconnector and rig operators instead of the business doing the trade
• the number of businesses now includes all VAT registered traders instead of just those who are required to make full declarations to听HMRC听for their听EU听trade

Please see the re-introduction of听EU听business counts section for changes to business counts from the first quarter (January to March) 2022 release onwards.

RTS听data is compiled by merging trade data collected by听HMRC听with employment data from the Interdepartmental Business Register (IDBR). A business바카라 사이트� trade is allocated to a region based on the proportion of its employees employed in that region. Where a trader is not matched with the听IDBR, its trade is matched with ONS postcode data to obtain the region in which the Head Office of the VAT registered business (importer or exporter) is based.

Not all trade can be assigned to one of the 9 English Regions, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. Where appropriate, this is referred to in the tables as the 바카라 사이트楿nallocated Trade바카라 사이트�, which is split into two groups.

바카라 사이트楿nallocated 바카라 사이트� Known바카라 사이트� is where we have virtually full details of the trade, but it is not appropriate to allocate it to a region. This includes:

• trade going into or out of the Channel Islands or the Isle of Man
• trade carried out by overseas based traders who have a VAT presence in the听UK
• trade carried out by the听UK听바카라 사이트
• parcel post trade that is dealt with centrally (trade collected via customs declarations)

바카라 사이트楿nallocated 바카라 사이트� Unknown바카라 사이트� is where not enough detail is known to allocate trade to a region. This includes:

• trade where business details submitted are invalid
• un-registered businesses (trade collected via customs declarations)
• private individuals (trade collected via customs declarations)
• low value trade (trade collected via customs declarations)

For specific energy goods only, trade is allocated to the region where the goods enter or leave the听UK听instead of the location and employment of the business doing the trade. This is because听HMRC听receives details of the trade in these goods directly from grid operators instead of the business. The goods concerned are Electrical energy, Natural Gas in a gaseous state and Crude Oil exported directly from offshore oil rigs. Crude Oil imported to the听UK听and exported from terminals is still allocated to the region of the business.

The business count is derived from trade declarations and is a count of businesses importing and exporting. Please see the re-introduction of听EU听business counts section for changes to听EU听business counts from the first quarter (January to March) 2022 publication onwards.

Where businesses have branches in multiple regions, there are two ways of deriving the count:

Whole number method. A business is counted as one in every region they have employees. This represents the actual count of businesses in any region. However, it will mean the sum of the trader count for each region will be greater than that for the听UK.

Proportion method. A business is counted as a fraction in each region they trade based on the proportion of their employees in each region. An individual business counts as one business in the听UK. The sum of businesses (whole and fractions) gives the total business count for a region.

We show results from both methods in the accompanying data tables.

RTS听data is categorised by partner country and听. (SITC) at division level (2-digit). 罢丑别听SITC听is a relatively broad classification of goods and is not as detailed as the commodity classification available in the听OTS. In this release,听RTS听data is analysed at partner country and听SITC听section (1-digit) level, with references to听SITC听divisions where appropriate.

More information can be found in the听RTS听methodology document.

Related statistics

Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency听(NISRA) publish the Northern Ireland Economic Trade Statistics (NIETS). NIETS data is gathered through the听NI听Annual Business Inquiry (ABI). Due to methodological differences, the NIETS and the听RTS听are not directly comparable.

On 10 April 2024,听HMRC听released the Customs Importer and Exporter Population statistics. It reports on the number of importers and exporters in the calendar year 2023, who were named on a customs declaration to move goods between GB and the EU or UK and听non-EU听countries. These counts will differ to听RTS听business counts. There are several differences between the two publications, namely that听RTS听includes data from Intrastat and VAT (for听NI听only), and excludes counts of traders that consistently fall under the commodity line threshold outlined.

The ONS produces the 바카라 사이트淚nternational trade in听UK听nations, regions and cities바카라 사이트� release which estimates the value of exports and imports of goods and services from 2016 to 2021 for subnational areas of the UK. The ONS release is produced on a听BoP听basis while听RTS听are compiled on an International Merchandise Trade Statistics (IMTS) basis. There are numerous different methodologies that contribute to the compilation of each set of statistics, a key difference being RTS听is compiled based on goods physically entering or leaving the听UK, while the ONS subnational trade is produced on a change of economic ownership basis.

Governance

The United Kingdom Statistics Authority (UKSA) has designated these statistics as Accredited official statistics, in accordance with the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 and signifying compliance with the Code of Practice for Statistics. Accreditation can be broadly interpreted to mean that the statistics:

• meet identified user needs
• are well explained and readily accessible
• are produced according to sound methods
• are managed impartially and objectively in the public interest

Once statistics have been designated as Accredited official statistics it is a statutory requirement that the Code of Practice shall continue to be observed.

Our statistical practice is regulated by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR).

OSR听sets the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the听听that all producers of official statistics should adhere to.

You are welcome to contact us directly with any comments about how we meet these standards by emailing听uktradeinfo@hmrc.gov.uk.

Alternatively, you can contact听OSR听by emailing听regulation@statistics.gov.uk听or via the听.

The Regional trade in goods figures undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure they meet customer needs. These reviews are published as a 바카라 사이트 Statistical Service (GSS) quality report.

There is a limited service to provide听RTS听outputs directly from听HMRC听trade statistics where the data cannot be obtained from other sources. This service is subject to听HMRC听standard disclosure rules applied to previously unpublished data.

Now that the听UK听has left the听EU, it is important that our statistics continue to be of high quality and are internationally comparable. All releases continue to be produced in accordance with the听UKSA바카라 사이트檚 Code of Practice for Statistics as well as internationally agreed statistical guidance and standards.