Accredited official statistics

UK regional trade in goods statistics, fourth quarter, October to December 2023: explanatory notes

Published 14 March 2024

Introduction

HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) is responsible for collecting theÌýUK바카라 사이트™s international trade in goods data, which are published as two National Statistics series - the 바카라 사이트˜Overseas trade in goods statistics (OTS)바카라 사이트™ and the 바카라 사이트˜Regional trade in goods statistics (RTS)바카라 사이트™.

National Statistics are accredited official statistics. The Regional trade in goods statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in October 2010 with publication of theÌýÌýin February 2011. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled 바카라 사이트˜accredited official statistics.바카라 사이트™ÌýÌýare called National Statistics in the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007.

°Õ³ó±ðÌýRTSÌýis published quarterly showing trade at summary product and country level, split byÌýUKÌýregions and devolved administrations.

Please note that trade in goods values are in current prices. Figures are not adjusted for inflation or global economic events, so please take caution when making comparisons with historic data.

The latest statistics on Regional trade in goods were released byÌýHMRCÌýunder arrangements set out in theÌý. This release includes the first provisional estimates of trade in goods for the fourth quarter (October to December) of 2023, Ìýrevisions for previously published regional data concerning 2023, and in accordance with OTS changes published on 12 January 2024.

Aggregated tables are produced to allow time series analysis:

• table 1 Value (£ millions) of exports (EUÌý/Ìýnon-EU) by region
• table 2 Value (£ millions) of imports (EUÌý/Ìýnon-EU) by region
• table 3 Count of exporters (EUÌý/Ìýnon-EU) by region for both whole number method and proportion method
• table 4 Count of importers (EUÌý/Ìýnon-EU) by region for both whole number method and proportion method
• table 5 Value (£ millions) of trade byÌýSITCÌýsection and country group (separate tables for each region)

These tables are provided in a supportingÌýstatistical data setÌýto this release.

Data source changes

From 31 December 2020, the free movement of people and goods and services between theÌýUKÌýand the European Union (EU) ended. This meant the wayÌýHMRCÌýcollected trade in goods statistics was revised.

UKÌý³Ù´ÇÌýEUÌý±ð³æ±è´Ç°ù³Ù²õ

Up to 31 December 2020,ÌýUKÌý³Ù´ÇÌýEUÌýexport statistics were collected via the Intrastat statistical survey, which required traders to declare the value and volume of commodities exported toÌýEUÌýMember States within the relevant month of physical goods movement.

For goods moving from 1 January 2021,ÌýGBÌý³Ù´ÇÌýEUÌýexport statistics are compiled directly from customs export declarations made according to the requirements of the Taxation (Cross Border Trade) Act. The customs declaration requirements are more complex than the single monthly aggregated Intrastat return and can result in differences between dates of declaration and actual movement of the goods out of the country.

°Õ³ó±ðÌýOTSÌýcompilation methodology relies upon the acceptance date of the customs export declaration for its inclusion within the relevant month of account, rather than the declared physical movement date used from the Intrastat survey.

Intrastat survey returns continue to be collected for goods exported from Northern Ireland to theÌýEU, under the terms of theÌýNorthern Ireland ProtocolÌýand latterly theÌýWindsor Framework.

Both theÌýGBÌý³Ù´ÇÌýEUÌýcustoms export declaration data and Northern Ireland Intrastat export (dispatch) data are incorporated into the overallÌýUKÌý³Ù´ÇÌýEUÌýexport dataset. As a result of the changes and differences outlined, there is a break in the time series for publishedÌýUKÌý³Ù´ÇÌýEUÌýexport statistics from January 2021. Users are advised to note this change when making comparisons to previous quarters/years.

UKÌýimports fromÌýEU

¹ó´Ç°ùÌýUKÌýimports from theÌýEU, the Intrastat survey continued to operate in 2021 for allÌýUKÌý(³ÒµþÌý²¹²Ô»åÌýNI) imports (arrivals) from theÌýEU, to mitigate the effects of staged customs controls, and to comply with the Northern Ireland Protocol.

However, from 1 January 2022, Intrastat only applied for movements of goods between Northern Ireland and theÌýEU, under the terms of theÌýNorthern Ireland ProtocolÌýand latterly theÌýWindsor Framework. Statistics on movements intoÌýGBÌýfrom theÌýEUÌýhave been compiled directly from customs import declarations.

Therefore, from January 2022, theÌýUK바카라 사이트™s goods imports fromÌýEUÌýdataset incorporates two data sources:ÌýGB바카라 사이트™s goods imports fromÌýEUÌýdata that is collected via customs declarations andÌýNI바카라 사이트™s goods imports fromÌýEUÌýdata, collected via Intrastat declarations.

As announced in the Borders Control Statement (UIN HLWS473) on 15 December 2021, the 바카라 사이트 extended the current arrangements for moving goods from the island of Ireland to Great Britain.

These temporary arrangements바카라 사이트¯enable바카라 사이트¯Irish traders to continue relying바카라 사이트¯on staged customs controls바카라 사이트¯for the foreseeable future.바카라 사이트¯While바카라 사이트¯these measures are in place,바카라 사이트¯import statistics바카라 사이트¯for바카라 사이트¯trade바카라 사이트¯between바카라 사이트¯GBÌýand Ireland are reported바카라 사이트¯as declared and바카라 사이트¯may바카라 사이트¯not바카라 사이트¯reflect the바카라 사이트¯period in which the goods바카라 사이트¯have been바카라 사이트¯traded.

Please note that customs import declarations of non-controlled goods imported intoÌýGBÌýfrom Ireland can be deferred for up to 175 days. This may affect the accuracy of trade data forÌýGBÌýimports from Ireland and associated aggregations.

As a result of the changes and differences outlined, there was a break in the time series for publishedÌýEUÌý³Ù´ÇÌýUKÌýimport statistics from January 2022.

More information on the recent changes to trade in goods statistics can be found on theÌý.

Statistical value threshold in customs declarations

Customs declarations with commodity line values that fall under the statistical value threshold of £873 (in value) and 1,000kg (in net mass) are aggregated into 바카라 사이트˜low value aggregates바카라 사이트™. We do not receive business, product, or partner country information on these movements. As a result, we cannot assign this trade to aÌýUKÌýregion, therefore the value is assigned to the Unallocated-Unknown region. This applies to goods exports fromÌýGBÌý³Ù´ÇÌýEUÌýcountries from 2021, and imports toÌýGBÌýfromÌýEUÌýcountries from 2022. This is consistent with theÌýRTSÌýmethods used for trade withÌýnon-EUÌýcountries, which are also sourced from customs declarations. As a result of this change, a value increase will be apparent for Unallocated-Unknown forÌýEUÌýflows from the dates specified.

Re-introduction ofÌýEUÌýbusiness counts

Due to the recent changes to data sources outlined, as well as changes to the VAT data source, a new method forÌýEUÌýbusiness counts was introduced in the first quarter 2022 publication, which resulted in a break in series from previousÌýRTSÌýEUÌýbusiness counts.ÌýEUÌýand total business counts from the 2021 data period onwards are therefore not comparable withÌýRTSÌýbusiness counts published prior to 2021.

Prior to 2021,ÌýEUÌýbusiness counts were compiled from Intrastat declarations, while businesses trading below the Intrastat threshold were captured through VAT data. Businesses trading below the Intrastat threshold made up a small percentage of the total trade value but accounted for most of the businesses trading.

From January 2021, changes were made to the VAT data which means that only movements between Northern Ireland andÌýEUÌýcountries are accurately recorded. Further, followingÌýEUÌýExit, trade betweenÌýGBÌýandÌýEUÌýcountries is now reported through customs declarations rather than Intrastat. Customs declarations therefore became the main data source forÌýGBÌý±ð³æ±è´Ç°ù³Ù²õ toÌýEUÌýcountries from January 2021, andÌýGBÌýimports fromÌýEUÌýcountries from January 2022.

As a result of the changes outlined, a new time series forÌýEUÌýbusiness counts begins from the data period of the first quarter (January to March) 2021.ÌýEUÌýbusiness counts are now compiled in this way:

EUÌýexporters from 2021 onwards:

• GBÌý±ð³æ±è´Ç°ù³Ù²õ toÌýEUÌýcountries via customs export declarations
• NIÌý±ð³æ±è´Ç°ù³Ù²õ toÌýEUÌýcountries via Intrastat (above threshold) and VAT data (below threshold)

EUÌýimporters for 2021:

• UKÌýimports fromÌýEUÌýcountries were collected via Intrastat
• NIÌýimports fromÌýEUÌýcountries for those below the Intrastat threshold collected via VAT data
• additional raw customs import declaration data to better capture theÌýGBÌýimports fromÌýEUÌýcountries. Throughout 2021, businesses could defer theirÌýEUÌýimports declarations for up to 175 days, this may impact data quality

EUÌýimporters from 2022 onwards:

• GBÌýimports fromÌýEUÌýcountries via customs import declarations
• NIÌýimports fromÌýEUÌýcountries via Intrastat (above threshold) and VAT data (below threshold)

Overseas trade in goods statistics

Data is taken primarily from customs systems (forÌýUKÌýimports from and exports toÌýnon-EUÌýtrade andÌýGBÌýimports from and exports toÌýEUÌýcountries) and the Intrastat survey (for Northern Ireland imports from and exports toÌýEUÌýcountries).ÌýHMRCÌýdoes not receive information in respect of goods that move wholly within theÌýUK, nor in intangibles and services such as banking or tourism.

The Overseas trade in goods statistics (OTS) were published on a Special Trade basis from May 2016 account onwards. This change has been reflected in theÌýRTSÌýfrom the second quarter 2016 release onwards. All data in this release has been compiled on a special trade basis to allow comparisons across periods to be made. More information on general and special trade systems can be found in theÌýOTSÌýandÌýRTSÌýmethodologies.

Updates to 2023 trade figures as published in the January 2024ÌýOTSÌýreleased on 13 March 2024 have not been applied to this fourth quarter 2023 (October to December)ÌýRTSÌýrelease due to production lead in times.

Trade in non-monetary gold (NMG) is now included inÌýOTSÌýdata, however this trade will continue to be excluded fromÌýRTSÌýdata. This is because the majority of NMG trade would be assigned to the London region and this would distort theÌýRTSÌýfigures. The following reconciliation table (Table A) shows the differences at total trade level betweenÌýOTSÌýandÌýRTSÌýby quantifying the elements ofÌýOTSÌýthat are excluded fromÌýRTS.

Table A:ÌýRTS/OTSÌýreconciliation table fourth quarter, October to December 2024

		EU Exports	Non-EU Exports	EU Imports	Non-EU Imports
OTS total value	Ìý	46,416.4	60,994.4	84,047.8	78,798.5
RTS total value	Ìý	46,131.7	47,082.4	81,209.3	69,093.6
Ìý	Allocated to a region	41,411.7	42,639.1	69,559.5	57,899.9
Ìý	Unallocated region	4,720.1	4,443.4	11,649.8	11,193.7
Late response estimates	Ìý	24.9	-	25.8	-
Non-monetary gold	Ìý	259.8	13,912.00	2,812.7	9,704.9
RTS total plus exclusions	Ìý	46,416.4	60,994.4	84,047.8	78,798.5

• there may be rounding differences between the total shown and the sum of its components
• late response estimates are for trade between Northern Ireland andÌýEUÌýcountries. They are excluded fromÌýRTSÌýtrade
• non-monetary gold is excluded fromÌýRTSÌýtrade
• 2023 data is provisional and subject to update

Source: HM Revenue & Customs, Regional Trade in Goods Statistics and Overseas Trade in Goods Statistics

Balance of Payments

The Balance of Payments (BoP) figures published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) are calculated on a different basis to theÌýOTS. Therefore, adjustments are made when producingÌýBoPÌýwhich means that theÌýRTSÌýandÌýBoPÌýare not comparable. The ONS website provides an overview ofÌý, and is where you can find their detailed monthlyÌýUKÌýtrade releases.

Methodology

Following an informal public consultation on Regional trade in goods statistics (RTS), releases from the third quarter 2016 release incorporates changes to the methodology and presentation that resulted from this consultation. The main changes were:

• allocating a business바카라 사이트™ trade to a region based on their proportion of employees in that region rather than where the location of the Head Office of the business is.
• dividing trade that cannot be allocated to a region into 바카라 사이트˜Known바카라 사이트™ and 바카라 사이트˜Unknown바카라 사이트™.
• for specific energy goods using data received byÌýHMRCÌýdirect from interconnector and rig operators rather than the business doing the trade.
• the number of businesses now includes all VAT registered traders rather than just those who are required to make full declarations toÌýHMRCÌýfor theirÌýEUÌýtrade. Please see the re-introduction ofÌýEUÌýbusiness counts section for changes to business counts from the first quarter (January to March) 2022 release onwards.

RTSÌýdata is compiled by merging trade data collected byÌýHMRCÌýwith employment data from the Interdepartmental Business Register (IDBR). A business바카라 사이트™ trade is allocated to a region based on the proportion of its employees employed in that region. Where a trader is not matched with theÌýIDBR, its trade is matched with ONS postcode data to obtain the region in which the Head Office of the VAT registered business (importer or exporter) is based.

Not all trade can be assigned to one of the 9 English Regions, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. Where appropriate, this is referred to in the tables as the 바카라 사이트˜Unallocated Trade바카라 사이트™. Unallocated Trade is split into:

바카라 사이트˜Unallocated 바카라 사이트“ Known바카라 사이트™: where we have virtually full details of the trade, but it is not appropriate to allocate it to a region. This includes:

• trade going into or out of the Channel Islands or the Isle of Man
• trade carried out by overseas based traders who have a VAT presence in theÌýUK
• trade carried out by theÌýUKÌý바카라 사이트
• parcel post trade that is dealt with centrally (trade collected via customs declarations)

바카라 사이트˜Unallocated 바카라 사이트“ Unknown바카라 사이트™: This includes:

• trade where business details submitted are invalid
• un-registered businesses (trade collected via customs declarations)
• private individuals (trade collected via customs declarations)
• low value trade (trade collected via customs declarations)

For specific energy goods only, trade is allocated to the region where the goods enter or leave theÌýUKÌýrather than the location / employment of the business doing the trade. This is becauseÌýHMRCÌýreceives details of the trade in these goods directly from grid operators rather than the business. The goods concerned are Electrical energy, Natural Gas in a gaseous state and Crude Oil exported directly from offshore oil rigs. Crude Oil imported to theÌýUKÌýand exported from terminals is still allocated to the region of the business.

The business count is derived from trade declarations and is a count of businesses importing and exporting. Please see the re-introduction ofÌýEUÌýbusiness counts section for changes toÌýEUÌýbusiness counts from the first quarter (January to March) 2022 publication onwards.

Where businesses have branches in multiple regions, there are two ways of deriving the count:

• whole number method: A business will be counted as one in every region they have employees. This represents the actual count of businesses in any region. However, it will mean the sum of the trader count for each region will be greater than that for theÌýUK.
• proportion method: A business will be counted as a fraction in each region they trade based on the proportion of their employees in each region. An individual business counts as one business in theÌýUK. The sum of businesses (whole and fractions) gives the total business count for a region.

We show results from both methods in the table 3 of the accompanying data tables

RTSÌýdata is categorised by partner country andÌý. (SITC) at division level (2-digit). °Õ³ó±ðÌýSITCÌýis a relatively broad classification of goods and is not as detailed as the commodity classification available in theÌýOTS. In this releaseÌýRTSÌýdata is analysed at partner country andÌýSITCÌýsection (1-digit) level, with references toÌýSITCÌýdivisions where appropriate.

More information can be found in theÌýRTSÌýmethodology document.

Related statistics

Northern Ireland Statistics and Research AgencyÌý(NISRA) publish the Northern Ireland Economic Trade Statistics (NIETS). NIETS data is gathered through theÌýNIÌýAnnual Business Inquiry (ABI). Due to methodological differences, the NIETS and theÌýRTSÌýare not directly comparable.

On 6 April 2023,ÌýHMRCÌýreleased theÌýCustoms Importer and Exporter PopulationÌýstatistics. It reports on the number of importers and exporters in the calendar year 2022, who were named on a customs declaration to move goods between Great Britain (GB) and the European Union (EU), or United Kingdom (UK) andÌýnon-EUÌýcountries. These counts will differ toÌýRTSÌýbusiness counts. There are several differences between the two publications, namely thatÌýRTSÌýincludes data from Intrastat and VAT (forÌýNIÌýonly) and excludes counts of traders that consistently fall under the commodity line threshold outlined.

The ONS produces the international trade inÌýUKÌýnations, regions and cities experimental statistics which estimates the value of exports and imports of goods and services for 2019 for International Territory Levels 1, 2 and 3, and 16 city regions. The ONS release is produced on aÌýBoPÌýbasis whileÌýRTSÌýare compiled on an International Merchandise Trade Statistics (IMTS) basis. There are numerous different methodologies that contribute to the compilation of each set of statistics, but the main one is thatÌýRTSÌýare compiled based on goods physically entering or leaving theÌýUK, while the ONS subnational trade are produced on a change of economic ownership basis.

Governance

The United Kingdom Statistics Authority has accredited these statistics as National Statistics, in accordance with the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 and signifying compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics. Accreditation can be broadly interpreted to mean that the statistics:

• meet identified user needs;
• are well explained and readily accessible;
• are produced according to sound methods, and
• are managed impartially and objectively in the public interest.

Once statistics have been accredited as National Statistics it is a statutory requirement that the Code of Practice shall continue to be observed.

Our statistical practice is regulated by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR).

OSRÌýsets the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in theÌýÌýthat all producers of official statistics should adhere to.

You are welcome to contact us directly with any comments about how we meet these standards by emailingÌýuktradeinfo@hmrc.gov.uk.

Alternatively, you can contactÌýOSRÌýby emailingÌýregulation@statistics.gov.ukÌýor via theÌý.

The Regional trade in goods figures undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure they meet customer needs. These reviews are published as a 바카라 사이트 Statistical Service Quality report.

There is a limited service to provideÌýRTSÌýoutputs directly fromÌýHMRCÌýtrade statistics where the data cannot be obtained from other sources. This service is subject toÌýHMRCÌýstandard disclosure rules applied to previously unpublished data.

Now that theÌýUKÌýhas left theÌýEU, it is important that our statistics continue to be of high quality and are internationally comparable. All releases continue to be produced in accordance with theÌýUKÌýStatistics Authority바카라 사이트™s Code of Practice for Statistics as well as internationally agreed statistical guidance and standards.