Accredited official statistics

Regional trade in goods statistics methodology

Updated 11 March 2025

1. About Regional Trade in Goods Statistics

HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) introduced the Regional Trade in Goods Statistics (RTS) in January 1999 to support the economic decision-making of the devolved Scottish and Welsh 바카라 사이트s and other regional bodies within the UK. These statistics provide a useful breakdown of the flows of goods imports and exports between regions of the UK and other countries.ÌýRTSÌýwas designed to provide a meaningful breakdown of the UK바카라 사이트™s Overseas Trade in Goods Statistics (OTS), split by the 9 English regions and 3 Devolved Administrations, also known as the International Territorial level 1 (ITL1).

United Kingdom

• England
  • North East
  • North West
  • Yorkshire and the Humber
  • East Midlands
  • West Midlands
  • East
  • London
  • South East
  • South West
• Wales
• Scotland
• Northern Ireland

RTS includes all merchandise trade within the scope of the UK바카라 사이트™s OTS. It therefore excludes trade in services (e.g. banking, tourism), intangibles (e.g. financial investments or transfers) and the movement of goods between regions of the UK.

Following customer feedback, from March 2018, HMRC published 바카라 사이트˜Experimental Statistics바카라 사이트™ based on UK geographical areas smaller than the International Territorial Level 1 (ITL1) regions used in the RTS. The employee allocation method used in the RTS was replicated to this data so the new figures neatly aggregate to the published RTS ITL1 figures. The UK regional trade in goods statistics disaggregated by smaller geographical areas can be found on 바카라 사이트.

In 2015, a public consultation of the RTS methodology and publication was carried out.

The main reasons for reviewing the RTS were:

• To ensure the statistics produced are fit for purpose and still required by users;
• To look at options that improve the usability and quality of the statistics produced;
• To harmonise, where possible, with the methodologies employed for other regional based statistics produced across the 바카라 사이트 Statistical Service (GSS);
• To identify the right balance between producing statistics at regions / locations, with product and partner country; but still ensuring disclosure controls; and
• To improve the accuracy of the count of number of businesses, incorporating additional data sources if possible.

A total of eight responses were received, including several government stakeholders of these statistics. All respondents to the consultation were in favour of continuing with quarterly RTS as there were no alternative published data sources that could replace it.

During the consultation, regional allocation methodology was also reviewed and the majority of the respondents preferred that regional allocation of a business바카라 사이트™ trade be carried out using IDBR (Inter-Departmental Business Register) data and based on the proportion of a business바카라 사이트™ employees in a region, rather than allocating trade entirely to a region where a business바카라 사이트™ head office was located. As a result, change in regional allocation methodology was implemented from Quarter 3 (Q3) 2016 onwards.

The respondents also considered the inclusion of business counts in RTS very important. Prior to the consultation, the business counts for EU traders were partially captured as it only included Intrastat declarants. Following the consultation, RTS included complete counts of the UK businesses that have trade activity with both EU and Non-EU countries.

2. Recent changes to RTS

2.1 Changes in data sources

Up to 31 December 2020, statistics for the UK바카라 사이트™s trade in goods with EU were collected via the Intrastat statistical survey, which required traders to declare the value and volume of commodities traded with EU Member States within the relevant month of physical goods movement.

Businesses that move goods to or from the UK to/from non-EU countries must complete a Customs declaration. HMRC uses the details from these declarations to compile statistics for the UK바카라 사이트™s goods trade with non-EU countries. This is unchanged. However, there have been two changes in the data sources for GB-EU trade since 2021:

Exports

For goods moving from 1 January 2021, GB to EU export statistics are compiled directly from customs export declarations according to the requirements of the Taxation (Cross Border Trade) Act. The customs declaration requirements are more complex than the single monthly aggregated Intrastat return and can result in differences between dates of declaration and actual movement of the goods out of the country. Intrastat survey returns, however, continued to be collected for goods exported from Northern Ireland (NI) to the EU, under the terms of the Northern Ireland Protocol.

Both the GB to EU customs export declaration data and Northern Ireland (NI) Intrastat export (dispatch) data were incorporated into the overall UK to EU export dataset. As a result of the changes and differences outlined above, there was a break in the timeseries for published UK to EU export statistics from January 2021.

Imports

During 2021, the Intrastat survey continued to operate for all UK (GB and NI) imports (arrivals) from the EU, to mitigate the effects of staging customs controls, and to comply with the Northern Ireland Protocol.

From January 2022, the UK바카라 사이트™s goods imports from EU dataset incorporates two data sources: Great Britain바카라 사이트™s (GB) imports from EU data that is collected via Customs declarations and Northern Ireland바카라 사이트™s (NI) imports from EU data collected via Intrastat declarations.

As announced in the Borders Control Statement (UIN HLWS473) on 15 December 2021, the 바카라 사이트 extended the current arrangements for moving goods from the island of Ireland to Great Britain for as long as discussions on the Protocol are ongoing.바카라 사이트¯바카라 사이트¯These temporary arrangements바카라 사이트¯enable바카라 사이트¯Irish traders to continue relying바카라 사이트¯on staged customs controls바카라 사이트¯for the foreseeable future.바카라 사이트¯While바카라 사이트¯these measures are in place,바카라 사이트¯import statistics바카라 사이트¯for바카라 사이트¯trade바카라 사이트¯between바카라 사이트¯GB and Ireland are reported바카라 사이트¯as declared and바카라 사이트¯may바카라 사이트¯not바카라 사이트¯reflect the바카라 사이트¯period in which the goods바카라 사이트¯have been바카라 사이트¯traded.

As a result of the changes and differences outlined above, there is a break in the timeseries for published EU to UK import statistics from January 2022.

2.2 Changes in statistical value threshold in customs declarations

Customs declarations with commodity line values that fall under the statistical value threshold of £873 (in value) and 1,000kg (in net mass) are aggregated into 바카라 사이트˜low value aggregates바카라 사이트™. The Trade Statistics and Customs Analysis (TSCA) team do not receive business, product or partner country information on these movements. As a result, TSCA cannot assign this trade to a UK region, therefore the value is assigned to the Unallocated-Unknown region. This applies to goods exports from GB to EU countries from 2021, and imports into GB from EU countries from 2022. This is consistent with the RTS methods used for trade with non-EU countries, which are also sourced from customs declarations.

As a result of this change, a value increase will be apparent for Unallocated-Unknown region for EU flows from the dates specified above.

2.3 Re-introduction of EU business counts

Due to the recent changes to data sources, a new method for EU business counts has been introduced in the 2022 Quarter 1 (Q1) publication, which results in a break in series from previous RTS EU business counts. EU and total business counts from the 2021 data period onwards will therefore not be comparable with RTS business counts published prior to 2021.

Prior to 2021, EU business counts were compiled from Intrastat declarations, while businesses trading below the Intrastat threshold were captured through VAT data. Businesses trading below the Intrastat threshold made up a small percentage of the total trade value but accounted for most of the businesses trading.

From January 2021, changes were made to the VAT data which meant that only movements between NI and EU countries were recorded. Further, following EU Exit, trade between GB and EU countries has been reported through Customs Declarations rather than Intrastat. Customs declarations therefore became the main data source for GB exports to EU countries from January 2021, and GB imports from EU countries from January 2022.

As a result of the changes outlined above, a new time series for EU business counts begins from the data period of 2021 Q1. EU business counts are now compiled in the following way:

EU exporters

From 2021 onwards:

• GB exports to EU countries via customs export declarations.
• NI exports to EU countries via Intrastat (above threshold) and VAT data (below threshold).

EU importers

For 2021:

• UK imports from EU countries were collected via Intrastat.
• NI imports from EU countries for those below the Intrastat threshold collected via VAT data.
• Additional raw customs import declaration data to better capture the GB imports from EU countries. Throughout 2021, businesses could defer their EU imports declarations for up to 175 days, this may impact data quality.

For 2022:

• GB imports from EU countries via customs import declarations.
• NI imports from EU countries via Intrastat (above threshold) and VAT data (below threshold)

2.4 The change in system of recording trade statistics

From May 2016, there was a methodological change to the way trade in goods statistics are compiled. Following a change in legislation, trade-in-goods statistics switched from the 바카라 사이트˜general trade바카라 사이트™ system of compilation to the 바카라 사이트˜special trade바카라 사이트™ system.

2.5 Regional allocation methodology

Prior to Q3 2016 RTS publications, RTS methodology generally allocated trade to a region based on where the headquarters of a business is located for VAT/Customs purposes, supplemented by an historic survey of the top 200 businesses of their locations around the UK in order to apportion their trade to the regions. The new methodology form Q3 2016 onwards allocates trade to a region based on the distribution of employees of a business across the UK. This improvement harmonised RTS methodology with other regional statistical products from across the GSS and is considered a much more proportionate reflection of trade at a regional level.

2.6 Changes in the Combined Nomenclature

Changes in Combined Nomenclature commodity codes may introduce breaks in the time series. Where an existing commodity code is essentially split so that a new commodity is created, then at the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) Division level the amount of trade within that Division is unchanged. It is extremely rare for commodity codes to move from one Division to another unless part of a planned overhaul of the SITC managed by the United Nations. The last SITC revision (SITC Rev. 4) was implemented in 2007.

3. Relevance

RTS is compiled to serve the needs of many users, including governments, business community, compilers of other economic statistics, various regional and international organisations, researchers and the public at large. They are used to measure the trade in goods for each UK region which may help identify new trade opportunities for products across the world, to measure market share, to identify growth areas, to forecast trade and to analyse patterns.

RTS is regarded as an important indicator of the economic performance of the UK regions. Export data in particular is used as an indicator of the state of health of the UK manufacturing industry. The statistics are also used to answer press queries, parliamentary questions and Freedom of Information requests. Other 바카라 사이트 Departments rely on HMRC바카라 사이트™s trade data to inform evidence-based policies.

4. Timeliness and Punctuality

RTS is a quarterly publication with a brief commentary, summary tables and charts which can be accessed via UK regional trade in goods statistics. RTS data is also available in greater detail via hosted on the UK Trade Info website.

RTS data are released on a quarterly basis. Figures are published within 12 weeks of the end of the reporting period. This is to allow time to compile, quality-assure and produce the statistics while ensuring they are timely for users.

In accordance with the , the release calendar for the Regional Trade in Goods Statistics publications is compiled and published twelve months in advance of the actual release. The release calendar can be viewed alongside other HMRC publications on 바카라 사이트.

5. Strengths and limitations

RTS is derived from OTS data and its methodology makes use of transaction information such as commodity code, value of trade (in £), weight of trade (in kg), partner country/country group and other data fields. It also uses business information such as the business바카라 사이트™ postcode and data from the Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR) provided by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Trade below the Intrastat threshold is contained within the OTS in the form of 바카라 사이트˜below threshold trade allocations바카라 사이트™ (BTTAs) and is also included within the RTS methodology. Although these BTTAs do not contain business information, the same methodology used in the OTS to calculate BTTAs is replicated in the RTS.

Where businesses are not VAT-registered, there is no mechanism in place to collect information on trade movements (this affects NI trade in goods with EU only). These trade flows are therefore not included in either the EU OTS or RTS figures.

A change in legislation on 1st May 2016 affected the way in which goods are declared to Customs, therefore UK trade statistics are prepared on the special trade basis. Under the special trade system, goods imported into customs warehouses and free zones are only recorded once they are removed and enter free circulation or certain customs procedures (e.g. Inward Processing). Re-exports from customs warehouses and free zones are not recorded under the special trade system. Prior to this, UK trade statistics were compiled on a general trade basis.

6. Data Sources

The data required for the allocation of Trade in Goods statistics to regions are taken from various sources within HMRC and the ONS.

From HMRC, Customs declaration data, Intrastat Survey, Departmental Trader Register (DTR) and VAT declaration data are used. From ONS, the Inter Departmental Business Register (IDBR) and National Statistics Postcode Lookup data (NSPL) are used.

In order to produce theÌýRTS, the business is matched against data held in theÌýIDBR. Where there is no match, a further match is tried agaom the National Statistic Postcode Look-up (NSPL) file. This replaced the use of theÌýONSÌýAll Fields Postcode Directory (AFPD) used in the previous methodology due to changes inÌýGSSÌýguidelines. Aggregation at the product level is achieved by matching commodity information with various accepted classification systems. These data sources are described more fully below.

6.1 Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR)

This database is a comprehensive list of UK businesses liable forÌýVAT/PAYE, used by government for statistical purposes. Specific use is made of the local unit file which contains details of employment and location details of each branch of each business. This file is the key to the new methodology where trade of multi-branch companies is allocated to different regions based the location of that business바카라 사이트™ employees.

Following advice from other GSS statistics producers who use a similar methodology, the RTS methodology uses an annual update to ensure timeliness of postcode data.

6.2 National Statistic Postcode Look-up (NSPL) file

Where there is no match against the IDBR, trade is matched against the National Statistic Postcode Look-up (NSPL) file. This file matches geographic units such as regions, counties and unitary authorities to 8-digit postcodes in the UK. The postcode of the business is matched against the contents of the postcode database, to allocate a region to the trade of that business. Also, an update is carried out to ensure consistency of postcode data.

6.3 HMRC Departmental Trader Register (DTR)

This database contains administrative details on everyÌýVAT-registered business in the UK (of which there are more than 2 million). TheÌýDTRÌýis used to match theÌýVATÌýregistration number and branch identifier of the business to the current postcode recorded for that business. The trader register is updated monthly and is used to assist the matching of businesses with theÌýNSPL.

6.4 Commodity correlation tables

UK trade figures presented within theÌýOTSÌýpublications are broken down by 8-digit Combined Nomenclature (CN8) descriptions, which are grouped within the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC, Rev. 4) 5-digit headings.

The introduction of regional breakdowns within theÌýRTSÌýmethodology makes it necessary to aggregate commodity code information for two main reasons.

First, the presentation ofÌýRTSÌýfigures is simplified if allÌýCN8Ìýdescriptions can be combined within a manageable number of higher levels.

Second, aggregation helps to ensure business confidentiality. The system for aggregation withinÌýRTSÌýis based on theÌýSITCÌý(Rev. 4) 2-digit headings (called 바카라 사이트˜SITCÌýDivisions바카라 사이트™). A list ofÌýSITCÌýDivisions is contained in Annex B.

For regular outputs, each uniqueÌýCN8Ìýcode is correlated to one uniqueÌýSITCÌýDivision. Being an internationally accepted classification system that forms the basis for the publication ofÌýOTSÌý´Ú¾±²µ³Ü°ù±ð²õ,ÌýSITCÌýis the system of choice to use within theÌýRTSÌýmethodology. TheÌýSITCÌýcorrelation is managed by the United Nations.

7. Methodology

RTS is closely linked to the OTS, users may find the OTS methodology also helpful.

7.1 Collecting business specific data

The methodology collects a list of theÌýVATÌýRegistration of all businesses making imports or exports each month. The initial merge is with theÌýIDBR, the secondary merge with theÌýNSPLÌýpostcode file.

7.2 Collecting trade declarations data

The methodology collects all lines of trade made for the month of account from theÌýOTSÌýdata systems. The category fields include the month of account, flow (import or export), the business바카라 사이트™ reference (theÌýVATÌýregistration number), the partner country, the commodity code of the goods (in Combined Nomenclature 8-digit form), whether the statistics require suppression e.g. for military goods.

The statistical data fields are the 바카라 사이트˜statistical value바카라 사이트™ of the shipment (in £) and its weight (in kg, excluding packaging). Note that for the data collected by the Intrastat survey, the 바카라 사이트˜statistical value바카라 사이트™ of the shipment is a figure calculated byÌýHMRCÌýfrom the declared invoice value submitted by the business plus data on delivery terms. This adjustment is to reflect the value of the shipment as at the boundary of the UK customs territory and is consistent with the 바카라 사이트˜special trade바카라 사이트™ method of international trade accounting.

7.3 Merging data sources

There is a two-stage matching process that matches a business바카라 사이트™ trade to a region.

• Allocate trade to a region based on its employment within each region

This method allocates trade to a region based on its employee count in each region. Where a business has branches in more than one region, its trade is proportionally allocated to each region based on the proportion of its employees in each region. Breakdowns of that business바카라 사이트™ trade by commodity and partner country are applied uniformly across each region. Where a business has one branch (or multiple branches which fall in just one region) all their trade is allocated to that region.

• Allocate trade to a region based on postcode

If the business does not match with theÌýIDBR, the methodology matches the business information and trade data with the contents of the 바카라 사이트˜National Statistics Postcode Look-up바카라 사이트™ file. This match is either at 9-digitÌýVATÌýRegistration Number or EORI (Economic Operators Registration and Identification) number for the location of the Head Office. See below for more details.

7.4 Matching regionalised data with other fields

Data are merged with theÌýCN8/SITCÌýcorrelation table to introduce a 5-digitÌýSITCÌýcode for eachÌýCN8Ìýcode. TheÌýSITCÌýcode is then truncated to 2-digit level (SITCÌýDivision) to produce outputs.

Data are matched with country groups as defined within the UK statistical reporting system. Producing outputs based on country groups, rather than on individual countries, are sometimes useful where a query demands more detail at the commodity or regional level. Grouping countries into one of eight continents or country groupings e.g. EU27, renders the outputs less disclosive.

To ensure that all calculations have been carried out correctly, consistency checks are conducted at each point of the matching and aggregation process, so that any discrepancy can be quickly identified and resolved.

Explanation of matching geographic information within the RTS:

Step 1: Is the business 9-digit VAT Registration Number (VRN) or EORI present?

If yes go to step 2

If no, there cannot be a postcode match and the trade is classified to 바카라 사이트˜Unallocated-unknown바카라 사이트™. MissingÌýVAT/EORIÌýnumbers may arise because the business has omitted to fill out the relevant box, or because a forwarding agent has submitted a declaration on behalf of the business and has left theÌýVAT/EORIÌýregistration box blank.

Step 2: Is the business on the Interdepartmental Business Register?

If yes go to step 3

If no go to step 5

Step 3: Does the business have one branch on the IDBR?

If yes, allocate business바카라 사이트™ trade to the 바카라 사이트 Region of that branch

If no, go to step 5

Step 4: Does the business have more than one branch on the IDBR?

If yes, use theÌýIDBRÌýto calculate that business바카라 사이트™ number of employees within each region and across the UK. Calculate the proportion of business바카라 사이트™ employees in each region. Allocate a business바카라 사이트™ value of trade to each region using the proportions calculated above. A business바카라 사이트™ trade by Partner Country and commodity is allocated uniformly based on these proportions.

Step 5: Can theÌýVAT/EORI numberÌýbe matched at Head Office level with theÌýDTR?

If this produces a validÌýVAT/EORI numberÌýaccording toÌýDTRÌýthen the postcode information is retrieved fromÌýDTRÌýand go to step 6.

If not, then the trade is classified to 바카라 사이트˜Unallocated-unknown바카라 사이트™.

Step 6: According to the ONS 바카라 사이트˜National Statistics Postcode Lookup바카라 사이트™, is the business바카라 사이트™ postcode valid?

If yes, the methodology will adopt the ONS geographic information.

If no, the methodology will attempt to match at the next level postcode. For example, the postcode 바카라 사이트˜SS99 1ZZ바카라 사이트™ would be trimmed to 바카라 사이트˜SS99 1Z바카라 사이트™. If no match is found again, it is further trimmed to 바카라 사이트˜SS99 1바카라 사이트™, at which point postcodes beginning with 바카라 사이트˜SS99 1??바카라 사이트™ are identified as Southend-on-Sea, Essex, East of England Region. This process iterates up as far as 2-digit until the first match is found. If no postcode match is found, the trade is classified to 바카라 사이트˜Unknown region바카라 사이트™.

7.5 Incomplete or incorrect business information

The quality ofÌýRTSÌýoutputs is to a large part dependent on the accuracy and completeness ofÌýOTSÌýdata. WithinÌýHMRCÌýTrade Statistics, significant efforts are made to assess the quality of the statistical information provided by businesses and agents on the supplementary declarations, while Customs processes provide checks on the single administrative documents. These procedures are used to quality assure theÌýOTSÌý´Ç³Ü³Ù±è³Ü³Ù²õ.

Looking specifically atÌýRTS, the two fields that are essential for the matching process to work are the businessÌýVAT/EORIÌýnumber and the postcode fields. Allocation of business to a region may not be possible, depending on the outcome of the matching procedure.

7.6 Regional allocation

Where a business has branches in more than one region, that business바카라 사이트™ trade is allocated to each region based on the proportion of their total employees in that region. These proportions are applied uniformly across the commodities that the business trades in and similarly for partner countries. Where there is no match with theÌýIDBRÌýthe postcode of the business바카라 사이트™ head office is obtained from theÌýDTRÌýand the business then allocated to a region based on theÌýNSPL.

7.7 Natural gas and electricity

Trade data relating to natural gas and electricity is obtained directly from pipeline and grid operators. Therefore, the appropriate methodology here is to allocate to the region where it enters or leaves the UK based on information supplied by the operators.

Natural Gas in a Gaseous State (CN8 27112100)

Flow	Notes
EU Imports	All trade allocated to East as enters UK via Bacton Interconnector
Ìý	Ìý
EU Exports	Exports to Belgium allocated to East via Bacton Interconnector
EU Exports	Exports to Ireland allocated to Scotland via Moffat Interconnector
EU Exports	Exports to Netherlands allocated to East (trade from Markham gas field) or East Midlands (trade from Wingate gas field) based on information from gas terminals
Ìý	Ìý
Non-EU Imports	Allocated to Yorkshire & the Humber (trade via Easington) or Scotland (trade via Peterhead)

Electricity (CN8 27160000)

Flow	Notes
EU Imports	Trade from France is allocated to South East (Folkestone)
EU Imports	Trade from Netherlands allocated to South East (Isle of Grain)
EU Imports	Trade from Ireland allocated to Wales (Deeside) or Northern Ireland (Strabane, Enniskillen and Tandragee) based on information from electricity terminals
EU Imports	Trade via Jersey allocated to 바카라 사이트˜Unallocated 바카라 사이트“ Known바카라 사이트™ as per methodology
Ìý	Ìý
EU Exports	Trade to France allocated to South East (Folkestone)
EU Exports	Trade to Netherlands allocated to South East (Isle of Grain)
EU Exports	Trade to Ireland allocated to Wales (Deeside) or Northern Ireland (Strabane, Enniskillen and Tandragee) based on information from electricity terminals

7.8 Crude oil trade

Where oil is processed on rigs in the North Sea and dispatched directly to other countries, the oil does not enter the UK and therefore does not obtain any regional coding. TheÌýRTSÌýmethodology categorises this oil trade based on the location of the oil rig. This allocation also uses information from the Scottish Adjacent Waters Boundaries Order 1999.

Oil imported or exported into or out of the UK via ship will be associated with a business. Trade is allocated to the region where the business is registered subject to the main allocation method outlined above.

7.9 Treatment of unusual trade

There are a number of categories of trade that present difficulties in terms of assigning regions to the business or activities responsible for the trade flows. These are described below. These are recorded in the 바카라 사이트˜Unallocated바카라 사이트™ category, split 바카라 사이트˜Unallocated 바카라 사이트“ Known바카라 사이트™ where full details are known but it is not realistic to allocate it to a region; and 바카라 사이트˜Unallocated 바카라 사이트“ Unknown바카라 사이트™ where not enough detail is known to allocate to a region.

7.10 Overseas businesses registered in the UK

There are a number of businesses who act within the UK on behalf of foreign companies overseas, operating as 바카라 사이트˜ghost presences바카라 사이트™. For ease of administration, the majority of these businesses are registered forÌýVATÌýpurposes with Customs House, Aberdeen. TheÌýRTSÌýmethodology categorises this ghost trade as 바카라 사이트˜Unallocated-known바카라 사이트™, as allocating it all to Scotland would falsely inflate the Scottish share and we do not have any information to enable us to re-allocate these data to other regions.

7.11 Private individuals바카라 사이트™ trade

Where individuals are importing goods via Customs Declarations, the declaration will not contain a valid business reference number, but an alternative number which is usually prefixed by P (for internal administrative purposes). These individuals do not provide other address and postcode information; therefore, the trade within this category cannot be allocated to a specific region. TheÌýRTSÌýmethodology categorises this trade under 바카라 사이트˜Unallocated - Unknown바카라 사이트™.

7.12 Non-registered entities바카라 사이트™ trade

This category reflects trade carried out not by individuals but by entities that for whatever reason are not registered forÌýVAT. No address information is available. TheÌýRTSÌýmethodology categorises this trade under 바카라 사이트˜Unallocated - Unknown바카라 사이트™.

7.13 바카라 사이트 trade

바카라 사이트 departments (including Health Authorities) carry out some international trade, the information for which is classed under dummy business references. This trade is classified by theÌýRTSÌýmethodology under 바카라 사이트˜Unallocated 바카라 사이트“ Known바카라 사이트™.

7.14 Channel Islands and Isle of Man trade

For the purposes of theÌýOTS, 바카라 사이트˜United Kingdom바카라 사이트™ is defined as Great Britain, Northern Ireland, the Isle of Man, the Channel Islands and the Continental Shelf (UK governed area of the North Sea). Therefore, theÌýOTSÌýexcludes trade between these different parts of the UK but include their trade with other countries. The Channel Islands (CI) and the Isle of Man (IoM) do not belong in a political or administrative sense to any particular UK 바카라 사이트 Office Region. ForÌýRTSÌýpurposes overseas trade carried out byÌýCIÌýandÌýIoMÌýis therefore classified as 바카라 사이트˜Unallocated - Known바카라 사이트™.

7.15 Parcel Post

Parcels sent through the international post system with a value less than £2,000 require only a simplified declaration to allow transit through customs and the calculation of taxes. Declarations are made on forms which are attached to the package. An estimation system calculates a value of such trade by partner country based on information supplied by Parcel Force and theÌýONS.

This system is only in place for trade captured by Customs declarations and classified as 바카라 사이트˜Unallocated Known바카라 사이트™. For trade collected via Intrastat, if a business is above the threshold, postal transactions are included in a business바카라 사이트™ monthly declarations in the same way as goods moving by other means of transport.

7.16 Below Threshold Trade Allocations (BTTA)

BTTAsÌýare calculated for trade flows that are collected via the Intrastat survey. TheÌýRTSÌýmethodology, takes theÌýOTSÌýBTTA values and allocates them to regions as described below.

For trade collected by Intrastat survey, businesses below the Intrastat Supplementary Declaration threshold (below-threshold business) are not required to submit details of their Intrastat trade toÌýHMRC. Estimates known as 바카라 사이트˜below threshold trade allocations바카라 사이트™ are made. These are broken down by partner country and commodity (HS2ÌýandÌýSITC2) and are included inÌýOTS. It is assumed that the distribution of below-threshold trade by partner country and commodity is similar to the distribution of trade carried out by businesses who are just above the Supplementary Declaration Threshold (this is known as 바카라 사이트˜just-above threshold trade바카라 사이트™ orÌýJATT). The methodology is implemented separately for arrivals and dispatches and produces monthly allocations.

Each month the BTTA allocation factors are calculated for each combination of 4-digit commodity code and country; these are based on the Intrastat trade received on Supplementary Declarations for the same month the previous year. Each factor represents the proportion of total trade in that commodity/country combination that is attributable toÌýJATT.

InitialÌýBTTAsÌýare then derived by multiplying the total trade received in each 8-digit commodity code and country combination by the appropriate factor. These initial allocations are scaled uniformly to ensure they add up to the required BTTA total for the month. These are then aggregated toÌýHS2ÌýandÌýSITC2Ìýfor publication.

When theÌýOTSÌýmonthly releases for a calendar year are revised for the final time, at the time of the June release of the following year, the monthlyÌýBTTAsÌýare re-scaled to match the revised BTTA total for the year, taking account of amendments toÌýVATÌýreturns and retrospective additions to the Intrastat register.

Prior to 2021, the sum of theÌýJATTÌýfor a period is calculated by adding up all the Supplementary Declarations for each business over the period, then selecting the trade from the smallest businesses, ascending until the BTTA total is just exceeded. TheÌýJATTÌýis calculated separately for Northern Ireland (NI) and Great Britain (GB), then combined.

However, for Arrivals the way sum of theÌýJATTÌýis calculated inÌýOTSÌýfrom 2021 has changed becauseÌýVATÌýreturn only capturesÌýNI-EUÌýtrade. Therefore, during this extended period of using Intrastat forÌýGB-EUÌýimports, a different methodology applies. This involves applying an average initial non-response rate based on historical records (6% for arrivals), which will be reviewed as a clearer picture arises from customs declarations, as staged controls are phased out. This does affect how BTTA are calculated for Dispatches trade as both Intrastat and theÌýVATÌýdata coversÌýNIÌýtoÌýEUÌýexports only.

The implication of this for theÌýRTSÌýis running the same process as for theÌýOTS, however allocation factors are created for each combination of 4-digit commodity code, country, and additionallyÌýITL1.

TheÌýITL1Ìýregion is taken from the division of declared trade by theÌýRTSÌýin the same month previous year. Initial allocations are then also created at theÌýHS2,ÌýSITC2, country andÌýITL1Ìýcombination level. The actual level of below threshold trade in eachÌýITL1Ìýregion is also calculated by splitting the global declarations for businesses not on the Intrastat register that month by the same process used for businesses above the Intrastat threshold.

The initial allocations are ranked so that theÌýHS2Ìý/ÌýSITC2Ìý/ country combinations precisely equal those in theÌýOTS, and so that the amount of below threshold trade allocated to each region closely matches the actual level of below threshold trade in each region calculated above.

Due to changes to the VAT data source, all BTTA is allocated to the NI region. This applies to dispatches trade from 2021 and arrivals trade from 2022. Although there will be instances where businesses are located in GB but moving goods (below the Intrastat threshold) between NI and the EU, due to the unreliability of VAT data for GB regions, the assumption is that all BTTA trade is carried out by businesses in the NI region.

8. Business counts

For reasons of confidentiality,ÌýHMRCÌýdoes not publish business counts at detailed level forÌýRTS. Instead, a separate table has been devised that provides information on the business population in each region. Businesses that are active in bothÌýEUÌýandÌýnon-EUÌýmarkets are counted once only in the total business counts. Businesses that are active in more than one UK region are counted in each of these regions in the total business count.

Initially there are two methods of dealing with businesses that have branches in multiple regions.

• Whole Number Method

A business will be counted as one in every region they have employees. This represents the actual count of businesses in any region. However, it will mean the sum of the business count for each region will be greater than that for the UK.

• Proportion Method

A business will be counted as a fraction in each region they trade based on the proportion of their employees in each region. An individual business counts as one business in the UK. The sum of businesses (whole and fractions) gives the total business count for a region.

Due to the recent changes to data sources, a new method forÌýEUÌýbusiness counts has been introduced in the 2022 Q1 publication, which results in a break in series from previousÌýRTSÌýEUÌýbusiness counts. This is explained in detail above under Re-introduction ofÌýEUÌýbusiness counts section.

9. Revisions, Exclusions and Suppressions

9.1 Revisions

RTSÌýmethodology includes trade amendments for previous months, as published in theÌýOTS, so that the outputs generated at any one point in time contains as much up-to-date information as is possible.

The addition of these items means that revised data for previous months continue to be provisional and open for revision until the trade year is officially 바카라 사이트˜closed down바카라 사이트™ in the following June바카라 사이트™s month of account. For example, trade data relating to 2020 are not finalised until August 2021 publication, and may change in each intervening month. Fully revised data are published on to ensure consistency with other published outputs, including the quarterly press release.

Exceptionally, HMRC may find large errors or significant values of missing data in earlier years. In these cases, it may be decided that the earlier series should be revised. Users will be informed of these revisions via .

9.2 Exclusions

RTSÌýincludes all merchandisable trade within the scope of the UK바카라 사이트™sÌýOTSÌýwith the exception of trade in Non-Monetary Gold. It therefore excludes trade in services (e.g. banking, tourism), intangibles (e.g. financial investments or transfers), and the movement of goods between regions of the UK. It also excludes estimates forÌýMTICÌý(Missing Trader Intra-Community) and late response.

9.3 Suppression

The suppression regime operates to ensure that movements of particular transactions cannot be identified. Suppression is also applied to ensure that published RTS data, whether in the quarterly press release or on the website, are at a level that protects business바카라 사이트™ confidentiality.

The full for published trade data can be found on .

9.4 OTS suppression policy

OTSÌýfigures published at theÌýCN8Ìýlevel and grouped byÌýSITCÌý5, follow suppression principles as set out in legislation on trade statistics. This permits 바카라 사이트˜passive바카라 사이트™ confidentiality which means an individual business may request thatÌýHMRCÌýsuppress trade figures within a particular commodity code. Suppression is usually agreed where the applicant바카라 사이트™s trade forms a major part of the trade within that commodity code or where they are one of only two or three businesses in the area. In addition,ÌýHMRCÌýmay suppress defence goods on the grounds of 바카라 사이트˜military secrecy.바카라 사이트™

The suppression may only affect the partner country or weight, depending on the outcome of the analysis. The application of suppression will determine the presentation of the statistics, depending on whether the value, weight, partner country or any combinations of these are suppressed. However, the important point to note is that suppression acts at theÌýCN8Ìýcommodity level because this is the lowest level of detail for published outputs. ForÌýOTSÌýoutputs aggregated toÌýSITCÌý4- digit or higher, suppression is not required.

9.5 RTS suppression and confidentiality policy

RTSÌýhas confidentiality and disclosure restrictions applied in order to comply with the National Statistics Code of Practice.ÌýRTSÌýdata are only available atÌýSITCÌýdivision (2-digit).

It is inevitable that the use of suppression will in some cases limit the detail that can be provided in the range of outputs available.

RTSÌýdata is not available for all partner countries. In the current methodology, data is available for a country only if the country바카라 사이트™s total trade (Imports and Exports combined) exceeds one per cent of the total trade of that country바카라 사이트™s World Region (based on a historical baseline). However, this suppression policy does not apply toÌýEUÌýcountries where data for all member states is available. A full list of suppressed and unsuppressed countries can be found in Annex D.

10. Annexes

A series of annexes accompany this document and cover:

• format
• SITC divisions
• Commodities and transactions not classified elsewhere in the SITC
• Suppressed countries on RTS