Danny Alexander on Scottish Independence Referendum myths
Scottish Independence White Paper myths must be debunked, says Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Danny Alexander.
I바카라 사이트檓 glad to see so many of you here this morning바카라 사이트�
In a week when we can all celebrate good economic news.
Yesterday바카라 사이트檚 GDP figures were yet another example of the strength of the UK economy right now바카라 사이트�
With 바카라 사이트� in the first quarter of this year 바카라 사이트� all three main sectors of the economy growing at above 3 per cent on a year earlier.
This is the first time this has happened in ten years바카라 사이트�
It바카라 사이트檚 the result of the hard work of people바카라 사이트�
From the southernmost point of Cornwall an area we granted national minority status last week바카라 사이트�
All the way up to the Shetlands바카라 사이트�
And it is another excellent example that 바카라 사이트� as a United Kingdom 바카라 사이트� we are well and truly seeing the recovery we so badly needed, thanks to the Coalition바카라 사이트檚 economic plan.
I remember when I was first invited to join the Treasury바카라 사이트�
At a time of a grave economic outlook바카라 사이트�
One of the best pieces of advice I was given바카라 사이트�
Was that I would need to have a sense of humour about things.
And four years on, that has certainly been true!
I바카라 사이트檝e been called a Ginger Rodent by Harriet Harman바카라 사이트�
I바카라 사이트檝e been told I bear a passing resemblance to Beaker from the Muppets countless times바카라 사이트�
And a couple of weeks ago I found out about a new photo blog바카라 사이트�
Called The Adventures of a Lego Danny Alexander.
Now, it바카라 사이트檚 perhaps true that the referendum campaign here in Scotland바카라 사이트�
Hasn바카라 사이트檛 provided many laughs so far.
And given both the enormity 바카라 사이트� and the irreversibility 바카라 사이트� of the choice we face바카라 사이트�
That is perfectly understandable.
This is, after all, the most serious decision any Scot will ever take.
But increasingly, as the campaign continues바카라 사이트�
When it comes to some of the statements and assertions made by nationalists바카라 사이트�
You really do need a sense of humour.
Because apparently, the same risks that apply to other countries wouldn바카라 사이트檛 apply to an independent Scotland.
Another financial crisis, for example, would pose no problem바카라 사이트�
Because according to Business for Scotland바카라 사이트�
The banks that needed bailing out in 2008 received funds according to the location of their operations바카라 사이트�
Rather than the location of their headquarters.
A claim that ignores the reality바카라 사이트�
That when the financial crisis hit바카라 사이트�
It was the government of the United Kingdom that stepped in to recapitalise RBS and HBOS바카라 사이트�
And the taxpayers of the United Kingdom that extended 拢275 billion of total support to RBS alone.
The nationalists may stick their heads in the sand when it comes to the global financial system바카라 사이트�
And the profound consequences of independence for Scotland바카라 사이트檚 financial sector.
But I haven바카라 사이트檛 heard the reality put better than by the former Governor of the Bank of England who said that바카라 사이트�
Banks are international in life, but national in death.
Second, there are the extraordinary set of claims that seek to reassure those living in Scotland바카라 사이트�
That nothing much would change with independence바카라 사이트�
Like the continued, belligerent, assertion that Scotland could 바카라 사이트� and would 바카라 사이트� keep the pound.
But while I can respect that Alex Salmond is passionate in his desire to break up the UK바카라 사이트�
바카라 사이트� he has to face up to the fact that the rest of the UK does not have to 바카라 사이트� and would not want to 바카라 사이트� continue to share the credit card.
There is also the fantastical claim, made in the White Paper바카라 사이트�
That an independent Scotland would share a third of the UK바카라 사이트檚 institutions and services바카라 사이트�
바카라 사이트espite the fact that this is completely unprecedented anywhere in the world.
This is a claim we have to listen to바카라 사이트�
Whenever an institution crops up that the nationalists haven바카라 사이트檛 had time to think about바카라 사이트�
Be it the National Lottery or the Met Office or the Passport Office바카라 사이트�
So it won바카라 사이트檛 surprise me if next Saturday night바카라 사이트�
Alex Salmond declares that an independent Scotland will share the UK바카라 사이트檚 automatic place in the Eurovision Song Contest final!
Over the last few weeks, I바카라 사이트檝e been attending public meetings on the referendum in the Highlands.
And all of the myths I바카라 사이트檝e just put forward are ones that have been put around by the nationalist campaign.
So I wanted to give this speech today, precisely because we cannot allow false or misleading claims by separatists to go unchallenged.
We need to make sure that when people go to the polls in September바카라 사이트�
For the most important vote they will ever cast바카라 사이트�
They are making an informed choice바카라 사이트�
Based on evidenced facts.
Everyone in this room this morning knows the importance of balancing the books.
Indeed every family and individual in Scotland understands the tough choices involved in matching up outgoings with incomings.
It has been one of the defining features of the government to tackle the UK바카라 사이트檚 deficit and rebalance our economy.
And as our strong, growing economy and falling deficit shows바카라 사이트�
바카라 사이트urs is a strategy that is working for all parts of the UK.
But by contrast, it is one of the defining features of the Scottish 바카라 사이트 to ignore the realities바카라 사이트�
바카라 사이트f Scotland바카라 사이트檚 larger deficit바카라 사이트�
바카라 사이트nd falling oil revenues바카라 사이트�
because 바카라 사이트� unfortunately for them 바카라 사이트� these facts demonstrate quite clearly that we are better off together.
The nationalists바카라 사이트� assertions on Scotland바카라 사이트檚 finances are at best ill-informed바카라 사이트�
And at worst, deeply misleading to Scottish voters.
In a few weeks time, I will set out government analysis of the many fiscal benefits of the United Kingdom바카라 사이트�
But this morning I want to focus on debunking some of the more dangerous economic myths being propagated바카라 사이트�
Namely those around oil and gas receipts.
And those around the national deficit.
On oil, there are some frankly incredible myths being put forward by the nationalists.
The first is the Scottish 바카라 사이트바카라 사이트檚 claim
바카라 사이트hat the wholesale value of remaining oil and gas reserves amount to 拢1.5 trillion.
As with most of the Scottish 바카라 사이트바카라 사이트檚 oil numbers though바카라 사이트�
바카라 사이트his is not only based on the most optimistic scenario for North Sea extraction바카라 사이트�
바카라 사이트t is based on a scenario where oil price is the same as the price of gas.
But in recent years, gas 바카라 사이트� which accounts for 40% of forecast oil and gas production바카라 사이트�
Has sold for little more than half as much as the equivalent volume of oil.
Yet over-optimism is not the Scottish 바카라 사이트바카라 사이트檚 worst offence in this particular example.
No, the fact is that the 拢1.5trillion figure doesn바카라 사이트檛 include any costs for getting the oil out of the ground바카라 사이트�
And into the petrol pump.
It is apparently news to the nationalists that바카라 사이트�
Oil rigs cost money to build and run바카라 사이트�
Pipelines under the sea are expensive바카라 사이트�
New technologies require investment바카라 사이트�
And oil workers expect to be paid.
All told, more than 拢1 trillion is likely to be needed to extract the remaining oil and gas resources assumed by the Scottish 바카라 사이트.
So once you바카라 사이트檝e taken these inconvenient overheads out of the equation, the value is much much lower바카라 사이트�
And revenues for Scotland much much smaller.
But the nationalists aren바카라 사이트檛 ones to let a good fact get in the way of a nice electoral soundbite바카라 사이트�
And so they claim 바카라 사이트� in their infamous Oil and Gas bulletin from last March 바카라 사이트� that more than half of oil and gas reserves have still to be extracted바카라 사이트�
And thus plenty of government revenues from oil and gas are still to come.
But we simply cannot trust their forecasts:
- not just because they are more optimistic than any other published forecasts바카라 사이트�
- not just because 바카라 사이트渢here is a high degree of uncertainty around future North Sea revenues바카라 사이트� 바카라 사이트� not my words바카라 사이트�
The words of John Swinney in his private paper to colleagues바카라 사이트�
But because the Scottish 바카라 사이트바카라 사이트檚 oil and gas tax forecasts have already been shown to be spectacularly wrong.
The Scottish 바카라 사이트 forecast that in 2012-13, a Scottish share of North Sea oil and gas revenues would be almost 拢7 billion.
As it turned out, total UK oil and gas revenues were only slightly above 拢6 billion.
And for the financial year just passed 2013-14, the Scottish 바카라 사이트 forecast that a Scottish share of North Sea revenues would be higher still바카라 사이트�
More than 拢7 billion.
Well, HM Revenue and Customs has today confirmed that total UK North Sea revenues last year were 拢4.7 billion.
So over the past two years alone바카라 사이트�
The revenues coming from oil for the whole UK바카라 사이트�
Have been more than 拢3 billion below the Scottish 바카라 사이트바카라 사이트檚 most cautious forecasts.
Over the whole six year period of the Scottish 바카라 사이트바카라 사이트檚 Oil and gas bulletin 2012 to 2017바카라 사이트�
Their most cautious forecast for Scottish oil and gas revenues is 拢41 billion.
Yet the independent Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts that whole UK revenues will be just 拢25 billion over the same period.
It doesn바카라 사이트檛 matter how deep you drill into the figures, they simply don바카라 사이트檛 add up.
It shows that the Scottish 바카라 사이트 and realistic projections go together like water and oil바카라 사이트�
And it leaves tens of billions of pounds missing from the Scottish 바카라 사이트바카라 사이트檚 White Paper.
Tens of billions of pounds that 바카라 사이트� under independence 바카라 사이트� can바카라 사이트檛 be raised across the UK
바카라 사이트ut will have to be raised from Scottish businesses and individuals바카라 사이트�
Or cut from Scottish services.
I have absolute faith in this country바카라 사이트檚 human resources.
And our resilience and work ethic바카라 사이트�
Just as we Scots have always proven we have the imagination and the creativity to push boundaries in science and the arts and economics and exploration바카라 사이트�
I have absolute faith that this country will keep producing great women and great men바카라 사이트�
Who can push those boundaries further.
But while we should celebrate that our human resources have such potential바카라 사이트�
We need to be realistic when it comes to our natural resources.
Our oil reserves are finite.
And we mustn바카라 사이트檛 let over-optimistic, unproven-projections바카라 사이트�
Raise false hopes for economic plenty.
Better off as part of the UK
Let me deal with two final myths together바카라 사이트�
Both the nationalists바카라 사이트� claim that Scotland would be better off바카라 사이트�
And have lower taxes, higher spending and no austerity if we were independent바카라 사이트�
And their biggest myth of all 바카라 사이트�
Their claim that the pro-UK campaign is only negative, or scare-mongering.
Because what these oil numbers published today show바카라 사이트�
바카라 사이트nd what I will argue for the next few weeks ahead of our final analysis paper바카라 사이트�
바카라 사이트nd the next few months ahead of the referendum
바카라 사이트s the indisputable point that we are better off together.
According to a range of independent estimates바카라 사이트�
As part of the UK바카라 사이트�
Scotland will face a smaller deficit, lower taxes and higher levels of public spending, both in the short, and the long term.
Independent organisations like the IFS, the CPPR and others have all shown that an independent Scotland would face a deficit of more than 5 per cent of GDP in 2016-17.
And forecasts from the IMF suggest this would be the second highest deficit of any advanced economy in the world.
On the other hand바카라 사이트�
As part of the UK바카라 사이트�
Scotland would be part of a nation with a deficit forecast of just 2.4 per cent of GDP in 2016-17, and falling further in subsequent years.
This means that바카라 사이트�
In the year 2016-17 alone바카라 사이트�
Independent experts agree that 拢1,000 less would be borrowed for each and every Scot as part of the UK바카라 사이트�
Than would be the case in an independent Scotland.
An evidenced, positive reason that we are better and more secure together바카라 사이트�
Today, in 2016-17 and beyond.
The Scottish 바카라 사이트 know the fiscal position of an independent Scotland provides a 바카라 사이트渃hallenging context바카라 사이트�.
Again, not my words but John Swinney바카라 사이트檚 private memo to his cabinet colleagues.
And today we now know that the figures in the white paper are already out of date.
But rather than confront these risks and uncertainties, the nationalists simply choose to peddle myth after myth.
They claimed the white paper would answer all the questions about independence.
That it would be the most detailed guide ever produced to a new country.
Instead, the white paper is full of false promises and misleading claims바카라 사이트�
Based on an optimistic forecast for oil revenues that are already out by 拢3bn a year바카라 사이트�
바카라 사이트ontaining policy proposals that are not funded and would not be affordable바카라 사이트�
바카라 사이트nd commitments that the Scottish 바카라 사이트 pretends it can make on behalf of other nations and international organisations.
It is time for the Scottish 바카라 사이트 to confirm what we all know바카라 사이트�
바카라 사이트hat the white paper was wrong.
A month ago the Centre for Public Policy for the Regions called on John Swinney to issue revised and realistic oil and gas forecasts바카라 사이트�
바카라 사이트o correct the discredited Oil and gas bulletin
바카라 사이트nd the errors at the heart of the White Paper.
I am repeating that call today.
The Scottish 바카라 사이트 must confront the fact that it is promising tax revenues and public spending that it cannot deliver.
It should revise its oil and gas forecasts바카라 사이트�
바카라 사이트r 바카라 사이트� better yet 바카라 사이트� adhere to international best practice and follow an independent forecast like the OBR바카라 사이트檚.
It is the very least that the Scottish voters deserve.
But I would like to end by saying 바카라 사이트� that there is actually one Scottish myth that I absolutely cannot 바카라 사이트� and would not be able to 바카라 사이트� disprove.
She바카라 사이트檚 about forty foot long바카라 사이트�
Publicity shy바카라 사이트�
And she lives in my constituency.
And if anyone here today, or any of your families바카라 사이트�
Wants to come up to Loch Ness and spend a weekend looking out for her바카라 사이트�
They will be very welcome indeed.
In short, there is more evidence for the Loch Ness monster바카라 사이트�
Than there is for many of the calculations and the claims that have been put forward by the nationalists to support their case for separation.
I want everyone in Scotland to be part of an influential country바카라 사이트�
Where businesses can thrive바카라 사이트�
Where the economy can grow바카라 사이트�
And where people can lead long, healthy, happy lives.
We have all those things as part of a United Kingdom.
We benefit from the shared sovereignty 바카라 사이트� and shared economy 바카라 사이트� that we enjoy as part of the strongest union of nations in world history.
And as Billy Connolly said yesterday바카라 사이트�
And he put it better than any politician could바카라 사이트�
The more people stay together, the happier they바카라 사이트檒l be.
It would be a real folly 바카라 사이트� and a real danger 바카라 사이트� to put so much of what we have at risk.
Especially if we based our decision to do so on the over-optimistic, uncosted claims of the 바카라 사이트榊es Campaign바카라 사이트�.
We need to continue challenging these myths.
And we need to continue making clear to the people of Scotland that we really are better together.
Thank you.