Chief Secretary speaks at the launch of the Scotland Analysis paper on fiscal policy and sustainability
Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Danny Alexander speaks at the launch of the latest Scotland Analysis fiscal paper in Edinburgh.
Good morning and welcome.
As you know, today the UK government is publishing the most comprehensive and definitive study of how independence would affect Scotland바카라 사이트檚 finances over the next 20 years.
I look forward to answering all your questions.
But first I would like to say a few words to set out this analysis.
On the 18th of September we face the most important vote in Scotland바카라 사이트檚 history.
Whether or not to remain part of the United Kingdom.
It바카라 사이트檚 a momentous decision.
And in my mind, there is no doubt.
By staying together, the Scottish and the UK economies can continue to grow and prosper.
And as a nation, we can continue to make the choices needed to live within our means and grow our economy.
But I know that many people are still undecided.
And the single biggest question in their minds is바카라 사이트�
바카라 사이트淲ill we be better off together?바카라 사이트�
So today바카라 사이트�
바카라 사이트 can answer바카라 사이트�
바카라 사이트es, we will be better off.
Because there will be a huge benefit to staying in the United Kingdom바카라 사이트�
You could think of it as a 바카라 사이트淯K Dividend바카라 사이트�.
Or 1,400 reasons why we바카라 사이트檙e better off together.
So what is the UK Dividend?
There is a detailed explanation in the document we are publishing today.
Five key building-blocks underpin our analysis.
There is little dispute about each one of those바카라 사이트�
바카라 사이트� because they바카라 사이트檙e all based on reasonable and responsible assumptions바카라 사이트�
바카라 사이트� and all five are seen by independent organisations as significant factors in Scotland바카라 사이트檚 future. And together they tell a powerful story.
The first building block is what you might call Scotland바카라 사이트檚 financial starting point.
Should Scotland become independent, it would start off in life in a worse financial position than the UK.
That is the view of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, the Centre for Public Policy for Regions, Citigroup and many others.
Even the Scottish government바카라 사이트檚 own figures show that Scotland would face a shortfall between what the governments gets in tax and what it spends on public services.
So, as a separate country, Scotland would be running a bigger deficit than the UK 바카라 사이트� from day one.
Indeed, independent forecasters show that, in 2016, Scotland would be borrowing over 5% of national income.
That is double the deficit of the UK.
And the difference equates to around five and a half billion pounds바카라 사이트�
바카라 사이트rom day one.
But that바카라 사이트檚 just the starting point.
The second building block covers the direct cost of setting up a new state.
For example, as an independent country, Scotland would need to set up new institutions.
A new passport office.
A new benefits agency.
Or a new tax collection authority바카라 사이트�
바카라 사이트� that last one alone 바카라 사이트� as ICAS set out last week 바카라 사이트� would cost 拢750 million.
We have taken the best independent estimates, which put the cost of transition at up to 1% of GDP.
For Scotland that figure would be 拢1.5 billion.
At the same time, as a separate country, Scotland would have to pay higher interest rates to borrow in financial markets.
A whole range of experts, from the National Institute to Deutsche Bank, calculate that, under independence, interest rates are likely to be around 1% higher.
That바카라 사이트檚 worth 拢500 million per year in additional debt interest costs.
The third of our five building-blocks is the cost of the Scottish government바카라 사이트檚 promises.
They바카라 사이트檝e set out their policies in the recent White Paper 바카라 사이트� but not the costs.
So we바카라 사이트檝e looked through the fine print.
Put it through the Treasury바카라 사이트檚 models.
Using tried and tested methods바카라 사이트�
바카라 사이트� and calculated that the Scottish government바카라 사이트檚 new policies would cost at least 拢1.6 billion every year.
The fourth factor is the future of oil and gas production.
It is an indisputable fact that North Sea oil production has been declining for many years.
The independent Office for Budget Responsibility has made an impartial assessment of this.
They estimate that oil and gas revenues will fall by around 95%, as a share of our economy, over the next 20 years.
And the fifth factor affecting the future finances of Scotland is our more rapidly ageing population.
This is the well-established view of the UK Statistics Authority, the Institute for Fiscal Studies, the International Longevity Centre, and many others.
As Gordon Brown explained last month, the number of Scottish pensioners will rise from 1 million to 1.3 million over the next 20 years.
It means a shrinking number of working age people would have to pay for a growing number of old age pensioners.
So an independent Scotland would have to spend more to deliver the same services as now.
So where does all that leave us?
A worse starting point.
The cost of setting up a new state.
Unfunded policies.
Declining oil revenues and an ageing population.
All of that바카라 사이트�
바카라 사이트� easily avoided by staying within the UK바카라 사이트�
바카라 사이트� is worth fourteen hundred pounds.
For each person in Scotland바카라 사이트�
바카라 사이트� each year바카라 사이트�
바카라 사이트or the next 20 years.
That바카라 사이트檚 the UK Dividend.
And the further ahead you look the more the pressures build.
That dividend바카라 사이트�
바카라 사이트� is our share of a more prosperous future.
It is the money that will pay for better public services and a fairer society.
Money for more teachers in better classrooms.
For nurses and midwives.
To put 拢1,400 per person in context바카라 사이트�
On aggregate, it represents 11% of Scotland바카라 사이트檚 total public expenditure.
That바카라 사이트檚 equivalent to around two thirds of the total National Health Service budget in Scotland.
It바카라 사이트檚 almost as much as Scotland바카라 사이트檚 whole education budget.
So what does 拢1,400 mean to you and to me?
Well, for example, 拢1,400 is more than enough to pay for a year of free school meals for three children.
拢1,400 pays for 10 weeks of someone바카라 사이트檚 state pension.
Alternatively, instead of cutting public services to fill the gap, as a separate country, the Scottish government could raise taxes.
For example, today the UK reaches what is known as 바카라 사이트渢ax freedom day바카라 사이트�.
That바카라 사이트檚 the day in the year when, on average, people stop giving their income to the government through tax and instead start keeping the money they바카라 사이트檝e earned for the rest of the year.
But, as a separate country, each person in Scotland would have to hand over their income to the state for two more weeks.
Another way an independent Scotland could offset the 拢1,400 UK Dividend, without cutting public spending바카라 사이트�
바카라 사이트� is to increase the basic rate of income tax from 20 to 28%, increase VAT from 20 to 26% and increase duties on alcohol, tobacco and fuel by about 40%.
Of course, the nationalists will say that we바카라 사이트檙e wrong.
They will just continue to peddle myth after myth바카라 사이트�.
바카라 사이트� saying that taxes wouldn바카라 사이트檛 be higher, that there바카라 사이트檚 loads of oil left, that public services won바카라 사이트檛 suffer, that growth will be stronger, that breaking away won바카라 사이트檛 be hugely expensive, that new institutions can be set up for free바카라 사이트�
And all of those myths are refuted by the information we publish today.
And I am very happy to answer questions on all of that.
We are talking about Scotland바카라 사이트檚 finances over the next 20 years바카라 사이트�
바카라 사이트hey are talking about what바카라 사이트檚 happened over the past 5 years.
We are focused on the future 바카라 사이트� they are stuck in the past.
To conclude.
Today we have shown that, by staying together, Scotland바카라 사이트檚 future will be safer, with stronger finances and a more progressive society.
Because as a United Kingdom we can pool resources and share risks.
It means a UK Dividend바카라 사이트�
바카라 사이트� of fourteen hundred pounds a year.
For every man, woman and child in Scotland.
And if our history teaches one lesson, it is this바카라 사이트�
바카라 사이트� together we achieve so much more than on our own.
So let us look forward to a prosperous and a fair Scotland 바카라 사이트� thanks to the dividend that comes from staying in the UK.
And that is why바카라 사이트�
바카라 사이트� if you have your doubts바카라 사이트�
바카라 사이트� if deep down you feel that we바카라 사이트檙e better together바카라 사이트�
바카라 사이트� today we give you fourteen hundred reasons바카라 사이트�
바카라 사이트� why we바카라 사이트檙e better off together too.
Thank you very much.