Research and analysis

What drives adaptive purchasing behaviours, and what methods can be used to predict and mitigate them during crises? HTML

Published 21 November 2023

Meeting note from roundtable chaired by Robin May, Chief Scientific Adviser, Food Standards Agency聽(4 July 2023).

Note on definitions: This roundtable and the wider project uses 바카라 사이트榓daptive purchasing behaviours바카라 사이트� (APB) to encompass changes in consumer behaviours in reaction to perceived (or real) product shortages. This may also be referred to as 바카라 사이트榩anic buying바카라 사이트� and 바카라 사이트榮tockpiling바카라 사이트� in the literature or colloquially, but APB is preferable to avoid flawed assumptions regarding public 바카라 사이트榩anic바카라 사이트� (Ntontis et al., 2021).听

Key points聽

1. Adaptive purchasing behaviours (APB) are defined as a sudden increase in the buying of goods, provoked by an adverse situation (or the belief that such a situation may be imminent), such as a pandemic or natural disaster (Cooper & Gordon, 2021). This note summarises the current evidence base for the main factors driving APB, as well as research gaps.听

2. APB is not usually triggered by a single factor: variables that have been found to affect APB include demographic differences, environmental triggers, distrust in authorities and reactions to mainstream/social media reporting.听聽聽

3. Future suggested research projects include analysing past APB events for the main drivers in each, investigating optimal 바카라 사이트榖ase level바카라 사이트� essential supplies that individuals should be encouraged to have, understanding social/mainstream messaging that may accentuate or reduce APB, and evaluating interventions to reduce impulse APB at purchase points such as supermarkets and petrol stations.听聽

4. A comprehensive synthesis of qualitative and quantitative data sources that may help to predict imminent APB events should be produced to understand the relative strengths of existing sources as well as the potential to develop new ones.听

1. What are the main factors that drive APB?听

• APB can occur in response to certain stimuli such as images of empty shelves or media reporting, resulting in people over-purchasing products (Bentall et al., 2021). This is motivated by meeting basic needs, such as fuel to drive to work or food to feed families.听聽

• The theory of social amplification of risk (Pidgeon, Kasperson & Slovic, 2003) shows that there is not usually a single trigger for APB; rather, there will be multiple factors, such as mainstream/social media messaging (see point 5), distrust in systems and uncertainty about how a crisis will play out. All these factors interact to produce APB.听

• Variables found to influence APB during the pandemic included the amount of disposable income available to a household (Coleman, Daif & Oyebode, 2022), ability to work from home (and therefore ability to shop at more convenient times) and the perceived fear of losing future income (O바카라 사이트機onnell, de Paula & Smith, 2021).听

• Adaptive purchasers may be distinguished, with different factors motivating those acutely reacting to real or perceived shortages during a crisis and those strategically building up their reserves, such as survivalists.听

• Mainstream and social media have both been found to influence APB. Using language such as 바카라 사이트榩anic바카라 사이트� and 바카라 사이트榗risis바카라 사이트� challenges the idea of social order and suggests a loss of control to some consumers (Phillips et al., 2021). Despite evidence that moderately affluent consumers are the main drivers of APB (see point 3), there is evidence that poorer communities can be scapegoated for APB, as research in Australia has shown.听

• Research across multiple countries during the pandemic found that the timing of policy announcements, such as 바카라 사이트榣ockdowns바카라 사이트� or movement restrictions, was one of the largest influences on a country바카라 사이트檚 purchasing behaviours. The public responded to both domestic and international signals to guide their behaviour, with some evidence that signals from 바카라 사이트榤ore similar바카라 사이트� comparator countries were stronger drivers (Keane and Neal, 2021). For example, the peak in UK purchases was around mid-March 2020, before the UK government announced restrictions; it has been suggested that the UK public observed the effects of restrictions in countries such as China and Italy, who implemented lockdowns earlier.听

• While individual and social factors are important, APB can also be observed because of a change in supply chains. These are particularly sensitive to sudden demand shocks (UK Food Security Report, 2021), which then make it difficult for the public and media to distinguish between product shortages due to lack of production versus those arising from problems in distribution or delivery.听

2. What are the factors that could result in APB becoming a critical vulnerability for government/industry sectors?听

• The relative importance of the factors discussed above in influencing APB is unknown. As well as the psychological and sociological factors discussed, immediate triggers, such as petrol station queues, empty supermarket shelves and product rationing can affect APB. Future research should investigate the relative strength of these triggers on behaviours to establish which interventions might be most effective to limit APB. In particular, a key unknown is the circumstances under which product rationing is counterproductive (in driving APB, rather than maximising availability).听

• The Cabinet Office바카라 사이트檚 Crisis Communication guide (Cabinet Office, 2022) details how the government should communicate to the public to support them in meeting their basic needs, to reduce the likelihood of APB becoming a critical vulnerability. More detailed evidence on specific APB behaviours may enable more targeted guidance to be provided.听

• Some countries encourage their citizens to maintain a base level of essential supplies in their homes as part of 바카라 사이트榮ensible바카라 사이트� preparations for extreme weather or conflict. Future research could identify the ideal base levels of essential supplies for individual and community resilience within the UK, and how to best communicate these to the public (Kohn et al., 2013).听

• Fuel supply illustrates the factors that could result in disproportionate APB: the 2021 shortages attracted high levels of media attention and resulted in an 85% increase in demand, driving stocks down; however, when a protest group blocked fuel distribution terminals in 2022, there was less media reporting and no increase in demand (DESNZ statistics). Further analysis of these events would be useful to explore the relative significance of APB triggers.听

3. What data sources and methodologies could government/industry use or develop to identify and predict APB?听

• It is important to combine purchasing data with media monitoring to understand consumption patterns. This should be done in collaboration with industry partners. Data from Kantar (2020) and the Institute of Fiscal Studies (2020) showed extra demand in supermarkets during March 2020 was largely driven by people adding a few extra items to baskets and making more trips, rather than shoppers buying large amounts of the same item in one go. Having continuous insights like this can help government improve their communications and create evidence-based interventions.听

• Qualitative research, such as ethnographies, would be particularly valuable on the 바카라 사이트榝rontlines바카라 사이트� of APB, such as with shoppers, supermarket workers, petrol forecourt staff and pharmacy staff. This could be used to find out how experiences of staff shape impulse buying and provide a novel data gathering approach, such as pulse surveys with staff to create awareness of potential spikes in APB.听

• Other research has looked for APB signals in internet search terms (such as Google Trend findings; Keane & Neal, 2021) or phone calls (similar to how public health bodies track NHS 111 calls for early signals of flu outbreaks). There are also Bank of England decision maker panel surveys, Kantar statistics on fast-moving consumer goods, ONS data and the FSA consumer insights tracker.听

笔补谤迟颈肠颈辫补苍迟蝉听

Robin May (Food Standards Agency; Chair), Aureo de Paula (UCL), Eleanor Prince (Cabinet Office), Nick Boase (Defra), Nick Pidgeon (Cardiff University), Paul Coleman (University of York), Richard Bentall (University of Sheffield), Tarryn Phillips (La Trobe University, Melbourne), Timothy Neal (University of New South Wales, Sydney), Virginia Spiegler (University of Kent)聽

搁别蹿别谤别苍肠别蝉听

Average road fuel sales, deliveries and stock levels (2023) 바카라 사이트. Available at: /government/statistics/average-road-fuel-sales-and-stock-levels (Accessed: 07 July 2023).听聽

Bentall, R.P. et al. (2021) 바카라 사이트楶andemic buying: Testing a psychological model of over-purchasing and panic buying using data from the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic바카라 사이트�, PLOS ONE, 16(1). doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0246339.听聽

Coleman, P.C., Dhaif, F. and Oyebode, O. (2022) 바카라 사이트楩ood shortages, stockpiling and panic buying ahead of Brexit as reported by the British media: A mixed methods content analysis바카라 사이트�, BMC Public Health, 22(1). doi:10.1186/s12889-022-12548-8.听聽

Consumer insights tracker (no date) Food Standards Agency. Available at: (Accessed: 07 July 2023).听聽

Consumer Panel for food, beverages and household products (no date) FMCG - Kantar Worldpanel. Available at: (Accessed: 07 July 2023).听聽

Cooper, M.A. and Gordon, J.L. (2021) 바카라 사이트楿nderstanding panic buying through an integrated psychodynamic lens바카라 사이트�, Frontiers in Public Health, 9. doi:10.3389/fpubh.2021.666715.听聽

Crisis communication: A behavioural approach (2022) GCS. Available at: (Accessed: 07 July 2023).听聽

Decison Maker Panel (2023) Decision Maker Panel. Available at: (Accessed: 07 July 2023).听聽

Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators: 29 June 2023 (2023) Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators - Office for National Statistics. Available at (Accessed: 07 July 2023).听聽

Keane, M. and Neal, T. (2021) 바카라 사이트楥onsumer panic in the covid-19 pandemic바카라 사이트�, Journal of Econometrics, 220(1), pp. 86바카라 사이트�105. doi:10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.07.045.听聽

Kohn, S. et al. (2012) 바카라 사이트楶ersonal disaster preparedness: An integrative review of the literature바카라 사이트�, Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness, 6(3), pp. 217바카라 사이트�231. doi:10.1001/dmp.2012.47.听聽

McKevitt, F. (no date) Accidental stockpilers driving shelf shortages, Global site - Kantar Worldpanel. Available at: (Accessed: 07 July 2023).听聽

Ntontis, E. et al. (2022) 바카라 사이트業s it really 바카라 사이트減anic buying바카라 사이트�? public perceptions and experiences of extra buying at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic바카라 사이트�, PLOS ONE, 17(2). doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0264618.听聽

O바카라 사이트機onnell, M., de Paula, 脕. and Smith, K. (2021) 바카라 사이트楶reparing for a pandemic: Spending Dynamics and panic buying during the Covid바카라 사이트�19 First Wave바카라 사이트�, Fiscal Studies, 42(2), pp. 249바카라 사이트�264. doi:10.1111/1475-5890.12271.听聽

Phillips, T. et al. (2021) 바카라 사이트楾he victims, villains and heroes of 바카라 사이트減anic buying바카라 사이트�: News media attribution of responsibility for COVID-19 stockpiling바카라 사이트�, Journal of Sociology, 59(2), pp. 580바카라 사이트�599. doi:10.1177/14407833211057310.听聽

Pidgeon, N.F., Kasperson, R.E. and Slovic, P. (2003) The social amplification of risk. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.听聽

United Kingdom Food Security Report 2021: Theme 3: Food Supply Chain Resilience (no date) 바카라 사이트. Available at: /government/statistics/united-kingdom-food-security-report-2021/united-kingdom-food-security-report-2021-theme-3-food-supply-chain-resilience (Accessed: 07 July 2023).听