Uncertainty toolkit
We helped develop a toolkit for analysts in government. GAD, 8 other government departments and a public sector organisation developed and refined the advice and guidance.
The 바카라 사이트 Actuary바카라 사이트檚 Department (GAD) has helped to develop a new toolkit for analysts. The is for use when they바카라 사이트檙e confronted by a problem that includes elements of uncertainty.
GAD worked with 8 other government departments and a public sector organisation to develop and refine the advice and guidance.
Step by step
The toolkit바카라 사이트檚 structure means that it breaks down the process of conducting analysis involving uncertainty into a 4-step process:
- agreeing how uncertainty should be used to help answer the question
- defining and identifying uncertainty
- measuring and understanding uncertainty
- presenting and communicating uncertainty
For each step the toolkit guides the analyst with examples and explanations. It provides key points to consider and suggestions of actions to take.
Uncertainty and analysis
Most of the projects that government analysts work on contain inherent uncertainty. Analysis should be conducted taking this uncertainty into account.
The results of the analysis need to be communicated to decision-makers in government in a clear way to ensure the nature of the uncertainty and subsequent results are understood.
The toolkit helps analysts to do this, and in doing so is designed to ensure that properly informed decisions can be made.
Working together
Scott Waygood, who leads on this project in GAD said: 바카라 사이트淭he development of this toolkit has really been a great collaboration by people in a wide range of government departments and other organisations.
바카라 사이트淲e바카라 사이트檝e brought together evidence and best practice from across the analytical community, both within and outside of government, and we바카라 사이트檒l continue to work on improving the guidance in response to feedback we바카라 사이트檝e received.바카라 사이트�
The toolkit, which is an ongoing project, is the result of extensive research and discussions around good practice for dealing with and communicating uncertainty.