Characterising livestock system 바카라 사이트˜zoonoses hotspots바카라 사이트™
Abstract
A systematic review of the published literature was undertaken to explore the ability of different types of model to help identify the relative importance of different drivers leading to the development of zoonoses hotspots. We estimated that out of 373 papers we included in our review, 108 papers touched upon the objective of 바카라 사이트˜Assessment of interventions and intervention policies바카라 사이트™, 75 addressed the objective of 바카라 사이트˜Analysis of economic aspects of disease outbreaks and interventions바카라 사이트™, 67 the objective of 바카라 사이트˜Prediction of future outbreaks바카라 사이트™, but only 37 broadly addressed the objective of 바카라 사이트˜Sensitivity analysis to identify criteria leading to enhanced risk바카라 사이트™. Most models of zoonotic diseases are currently capturing outbreaks over relatively short time and largely ignoring socio-economic drivers leading to pathogen emergence, spill-over and spread.
In order to study long-term changes we need to understand how socio-economic and climatic changes affect structure of livestock production and how these in turn affect disease emergence and spread. Models capable of describing these processes do not appear to exist, although some progress has been made in linking social and economic aspects of livestock production and in linking economics to disease dynamics. Henceforth we conclude that a new modelling framework is required that expands and formalises the 바카라 사이트˜one world, one health바카라 사이트™ strategy, enabling its deployment in the re-thinking of prevention and control strategies. Although modelling can only provide means to identify risks associated with socio-economic changes, it can never be a substitute for data collection. Finally, we note that uncertainty analysis and uncertainty communication form a key element of modelling process and yet are rarely addressed.
Citation
Kleczkowski, A.; Breed, A.; Matthews, L.; Thronicker, D.; de Vries, F. Characterising livestock system ‘zoonoses hotspots’. (2012) 28 pp.
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